Tag Archive for 'William Halal'

Small business and the impact of Moore’s Law

In 1965, Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, made a prediction which states that the number of transistors on a chip will double approximately every two years. Forty-four years later, this prediction has pretty much come to pass and, indeed, is now known as Moore’s Law.

As someone who remembers the wonders that were the first pocket transistor radios and hand-held calculators, I’ve been a witness to every one of the doubling stages of Moore’s Law. But in case you don’t remember when cell phones were bolted to the floor of cars, allow me to demonstrate by using the compounding effects of Moore’s Law on $1.00.

In 1965, if you put a single dollar bill in a magic box where the contents would double every two years, when you opened the box in 2009 you would find $2,079,158. When asked what he thought was the most powerful force in the universe, Albert Einstein is purported to have answered, “compound interest.” If Einstein were alive today, surely his answer would now be, “Moore’s Law.”

One of the things not stated, but implicit in Moore’s Law is that with technology, unlike the dollar in the box, the compounding has resulted in humanity being given innumerable technological magic boxes and applications that have changed the world in ways not imagined in 1965. Truly, it’s an exciting time to be alive, and as we contemplate our $2 mill in the magic box becoming $4 mill two years from now, imagine the promise of the technology you currently own doubling in power and capability by 2011.

Happily, we don’t have to wonder about this too much; there are people who project such things. William Halal, author of “Technology’s Promise”, is one of these smart guys and also a member of my Brain Trust. Bill joined me recently on my small business radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show and reported on some of the magic box technology we can look forward to in the very near term. Take a few minutes to listen to this interview, and be sure to leave a comment.

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