Tag Archive for 'small business predictions'

My 2017 Crystal Ball Predictions

1. Here are my 2017 predictions. My 2016 accuracy was 78%. My 16-year record is 73%.

2. After eight years entrenched at barely 2% GDP growth, the U.S. economy will finally exit perpetual recovery mode into expansion status of at least 3% GDP growth.

3. From 2010 to 2016, regulatory pressure increased on businesses by an unprecedented 80% (Gallup). This investment-suppressing pressure will reverse in 2017.

4. The NFIB Index will report small business optimism increasing for the first time in eight years, as the economy responds to pro-business rhetoric and policies from Washington.

5. As the economy grows, small businesses will see increased profitability due to eight years of deleveraging.

6. For the first time in eight years, small businesses will increase business loan requests.

7. Business startups will increase at a rate not seen for several years.

8. Relevant small retailers will benefit as collapsing irrelevant giants, like Sears, Macy’s, etc., create a Main Street retail vacuum only partially filled by e-commerce giants like Amazon.

9. Small business job creation will lag economic growth due in no small part to productivity technology, which has redefined the growth = jobs symbiosis, forever.

10. With workforce participation at a 40-year low, the growing economy will not directly benefit millions of unemployed and underemployed who lack competitive 21st century job skills, like how to make – or even use – productivity technology.

11. Tax reform and regulatory abatement will cause Corporate America to practice more market capitalism on Main Street and less financial capitalism on Wall Street, benefitting the small business sector.

12. More growing businesses will decide to “Stay private” as short-term performance expectations and expensive regulatory pressures associated with “Going public” increasingly conflicts with the prudence of longer-term planning.

13. Inflation will rise organically with a growing economy – not from Fed monetary policy, which inflation chickens will come home to roost later.

14. Partially due to inflation, the Fed will raise interest rates at least twice in 2017.

15. Global pressures, Trump protectionism rhetoric, if not policies, plus rising interest rates will cause the Dow-Jones to end the year closer to 20,000 than 21,000.

16. U.S. oil production will thwart OPEC attempts to increase prices, leaving the year’s average below $60bbl.

17. Although elected as a Republican, Donald Trump is no party ideologue, and will prove equally frustrating for Republicans and Democrats.

18. In repealing and replacing Obamacare, President Trump will be frustrated by Democrats and Republicans.

19. Complete Obamacare replacement will take longer to accomplish than conservatives would like, possibly years.

20. The Obamacare replacement will include broad market-based solutions (re: Enzi Bill, 2006), plus broad tax credits and no mandates.

21. Obamacare elements of guaranteed insurability and extended dependent coverage will be part of the replacement program.

22. Obamacare popularity now polls upside-down at 51 against/44 for (Gallup). Once established for six months, the replacement system will poll net positive.

23. The smoothest governing issue President Trump will have is with the Congressional GOP on business tax reform.

24. Congressional Democrats will play their perennial bargaining chip of increasing the federal minimum wage and President Trump will make that trade for something he wants.

25. President Trump will nominate two Supreme Court Justices in 2017.

26. Trump will manage Putin/Russia, but be greatly challenged by China.

27. The most serious global economic threat will come from issues associated with China’s government-controlled financial/banking system.

28. President Trump will regard cyber-attacks from states such as Russia, China, etc., as de facto acts of war.

29. By the end of 2017, very little, if any of the Mexican border “Wall” will have begun.

30. Hundreds of sanctuary cities will become President Trump’s most challenging domestic issue. The cities will lose, but probably not until after 2017.

31. The Trump administration will only pursue an increased deportation strategy against undocumented, known criminals, but will stop accepting so-called, Syrian refugees.

32. The Obama administration’s undermining of Israel in the U.N. will increase debate intensity about U.S. financial support of the world body.

33. While dealing with Brexit, the Euro Zone will also be challenged when Italy tries to use the 2015 Greek bailout playbook.

34. In defense of his legacy, President Obama will not adopt the precedent of outgoing presidents to stay below the public discourse radar.

35. Within two years, Barack Obama, and/or Hillary Clinton, will be proposed for a high-ranking U.N. position.

36. Senator Joe Manchin (D) from West Virginia, will become a (R).

37. The Alabama defense will deliver the NCAA Division 1 title for The Tide, defeating Clemson in consecutive Championship Games.

Write this on a rock … Buckle up. The Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times,” will not cover 2017, partially thanks to Twitter.

Blasingame’s 2015 Crystal Ball predictions

Here are my predictions for 2015. My 14-year record is 73% accuracy.

Prediction: Geopolitics, geo-competition and the supply/demand dynamic for crude oil won’t find equilibrium anytime soon, causing prices to fluctuate, but average less than $70 per barrel.

Prediction: Buoyed by consumers buoyed by low gas prices and six years of recovery fatigue, the U.S. economy will grow, but global economic headwinds and currency influences on exports will result in U.S. annual GDP averaging near an unremarkable 3%.

Prediction: Consumer optimism will produce small business contribution to GDP greater than any year since the Great Recession.

Prediction: An improving economy, plus anticipation of a business-friendly 114th Congress will cause an upward trend in small business optimism toward NFIB Index’s 42-year average of 100 points.

Prediction: Small business loan demand will increase as growth opportunities exceed the ability to fund them with organic capital resources.

Prediction: With organizational productivity maxed out, even marginal economic growth will cause small and large businesses to increase hiring.

Prediction: Continued concern about the fragility of the U.S. and global economies will cause the Fed to maintain monetary easing by keeping the Fed Funds rate unchanged.

Prediction: In June the Supreme Court will deliver a catastrophic structural blow to Obamacare in a 5-4 ruling that the law does not permit subsidies to enrollees in the 36 states with Federal exchanges.

Prediction: The GOP-controlled Congress and President Obama will accomplish one thing together in 2015: tax reform.

Prediction: Congressional Republicans will successfully thwart the execution of Obama’s executive order on immigration.

Prediction: The Sony hack and subsequent corporate cyber-terror threat by North Korea will for the first time in history manifest in cyber-security practices of corporate America being elevated to de facto national security concerns.

Prediction: The unprecedented terror threat on a U.S. corporation by a foreign state in Dec 2014 will cause the U.S. government to constrain private firms from responding to such threats on their own.

Prediction: In political theater redux, a Clinton and a Bush will become presidential candidates in the next cycle, but neither will be their party’s front-runners by year-end.

Prediction: Oregon will defeat Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.

Prediction: Alabama will win the inaugural NCAA Division I Championship Game Jan. 10.

Write this on a rock … Obamacare will continue to make news in 2015, as will oil, cyber-security and a mixed bag of global economic conditions.

Video: Blasingame’s 2014 Crystal Ball Predictions

In this week's video I share my 2014 predictions about what will happen with the economy and trending topics.

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Jim’s 2013 crystal ball predictions

Here are my 2013 predictions. Buckle up, especially if you suffer from triskaidekaphobia.

Prediction: Whether before or after January 1, the political class will claim “fiscal cliff” avoidance, but the unleadership product will be more postponement than policy.

Prediction: The two dominant factors in the 2013 economy will both be government-created headwinds: tax increases and Obamacare.

Prediction: Small business uncertainty as a decision-making factor, now worse than during the Carter administration (according to NFIB), will continue for the fifth consecutive year and produce the following specific behaviors:

  • Continued reluctance to hire full-time employees.
  • Capital investment more for maintenance than growth.
  • Continued bank loan demand below recovery levels.

Prediction: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has been recorded below 93 points 58 times since 1973, with 34 of those in Obama’s first term. There will be more in 2013.

Prediction: Chronic unemployment and persistent under-employment (U6) will continue due to the following factors:

  • Small business’s ability to adopt technology as a productivity alternative to hiring.
  • Obamacare’s compliance floor of 50 full-time employees.

Prediction: The unemployment rate (U3) will remain above 7%.

Prediction: U.S. GDP in 2013 will remain moribund, below 3%.

Prediction: For the first time in history, the national debt will exceed GDP, putting the U.S. on a short but ignominious list that includes Greece.

Prediction: The U.S. credit rating will be reduced for the second time in history during the Obama presidency.

Prediction: State insurance exchanges, structural platforms for Obamacare, will not be ready for the 2014 launch.

Prediction: The 2014 Obamacare “guaranteed issue” mandate will artificially cause increases in 2013 health insurance premiums.

Prediction: Israel will be under more regional pressure, and able to count on less global support, than ever in its modern history.

Prediction: While feckless and fecklesser - the U.S. and the U.N - watch, Iran will take the world across a nuclear Rubicon.

Prediction: At a price too great, the Newtown tragedy will create a comprehensive national conversation on violence in our culture, not just more gun laws.

Prediction: Alabama will defeat Notre Dame in the BCS Championship game in Miami.

Alas, 2013 is shaping up to make us think of the Mel Brooks movie, “High Anxiety.” Just the title; not the comedy.

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