Tag Archive for 'Republican Party'

Small Business Advocate Poll: Who will be the GOP nominee?

The Question:
Regardless of the political party you belong to, which of these GOP candidates do you think would be the most likely to defeat President Obama?

16% - Newt Gingrich

77% - Mitt Romney

5% - Ron Paul

2% - Rick Santorum

Commentary:
As you may know, over a year ago I predicted that Newt Gingrich would be leading the polls by the end of 2011 among the GOP hopefuls for president. This was not an endorsement; just an instinct. All during the year I took a lot of grief from my political experts about that forecast. But, as you know, my 2011 vision was vindicated.

When it came time to make my 2012 predictions, my gut told me to stick with my original instincts and not underestimate Newt Gingrich. But then my head intervened.

Everyone knows that Obama has the most formidable national re-election organization - and war chest - in the history of America. Then I learned that Mitt Romney has a formidable national campaign organization that can go the distance with Obama and that Gingrich has virtually no national organization and is week-to-week financially. And Romney, it seemed to me, would be the best at coalescing independent voters over to the GOP side of the ballot. Therefore, I went with my head instead of my gut, and predicted Romney would be the 2012 Republican nominee.

My reasoned prediction was in pretty good shape for a while, until a tectonic shift happened in South Carolina on Saturday, where Gingrich accomplished nothing short of a smack-down. He won the state by taking 40% of the vote in the GOP primary to Romney’s 28%. Santorum and Paul split the rest.

Last week, Gingrich had a potentially devastating, roller-coaster week. So when you combine that with the considerable experience and instincts of so many political pundits favoring Romney, plus my prediction and our recent poll results (see below), perhaps at no time since Truman upset Dewey in ‘48 have so many professionals and regular folk exclaimed in national unison, “Whoa! Didn’t see that coming.”

Politically speaking, South Carolina is a long way from Tampa, Florida, where the Republican National Convention will be held in August. Gingrich has proven that his message resonates with conservatives. But he has two huge mountain ranges to climb before he moves into the White House: 1) win over independents; and 2) put together a national organization that can stay with Obama for all four quarters of this Super Bowl of politics.

If you love politics, it doesn’t get any better than this. If you love America, surely the raw beauty of this process is one of the reasons. God bless America.

Today on my radio show I talked with Rich Galen, Publisher of Mullings.com and Republican strategist, about which GOP candidates had the best chance to become the nominee and defeat Obama in November. Take a few minutes to click here and listen to our predictions.

Check out more great SBA content HERE!

Take this week’s poll HERE!

What’s good for small business is good for the world

The mid-term Congressional elections will be held barely more than a month from now and, if you’re a political junkie, it’s been a high time. This is the most interesting political landscape in my lifetime for a two specific reasons:

  1. There is an almost unprecedented dramatic line between what the two main political parties stand for.
  2. Both parties are somewhat in disarray because their political class paradigms are being shifted by influences that are threatening to upset their incumbency apple carts.

Many people believe that this election may go down as one of the most important ones in the history of our republic.  I am one of those people.  That’s why we wanted to know how members of our audience were leaning on the election.   So last week we asked this question:

“If the election were today, which party would you be more likely to vote for? (Note: Assume all Tea Party candidates are now on the Republican ticket.)”

Fifteen percent said they would vote for a Democrat and 85% said they would pull the Republican lever.

As you have likely seen, most polls indicate that Republicans will make major gains in the House and Senate. In fact, on my radio show recently, Steve Forbes predicted that the GOP would win a majority in both houses.

It’s not a surprise to me that our respondents tip even more heavily for Republicans than the national political polls, because our audience is primarily small business owners.  Members of this sector of the electorate are tired of Washington passing laws and regulations that hurt small businesses, whether we’re collateral damage or the intended target, and right now the folks who are getting the blame for these assaults are Democrats.

But there is one thing that’s unique about this election cycle that may water down the GOP’s apparent advantage: There is as much of an anti-incumbent sentiment among the electorate as there is anti-Democrat.  As I said at the beginning, we’re experiencing a most interesting political landscape.

My hope is that whatever happens, it is good for American small businesses. Because I believe that what is good for small business is good for America.

I recently reported on this issue on my radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show. Take a few minutes to listen and, whether you agree with me or not, be sure to leave your comment. Listen Live! Download, Too!

To participate in current poll question, visit www.smallbusinessadvocate.com and vote.




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