Tag Archive for 'Republican'

POLL RESULTS: Does Trump have a chance at becoming the Republican nominee, and possibly the President?

The Question:

Does Trump have a chance at becoming the Republican nominee, and possibly the President?

16% - Trump could be the nominee, is electable, and would be a good President.
12% - I wish Trump would be the GOP nominee, but don’t think he will.
51% - Trump is a flash in the pan and will flare out before the primary is over.

20% - President Trump? God help us!
Jim’s Comments
As you may know, I often make predictions. For more than a dozen years of doing so my record is a little better than 75% accuracy. Not because I’m so smart, but because my gray hair is not premature. I pay attention to what’s going on and imagine implications.
I predicted the Great Recession would begin in 2007, the GM bankruptcy, and before Newt Gingrich had announced, that he would be leading in the polls at the end of 2011. Alas, I also predicted that Iraq would become a sovereign state and U.S. ally, and that Romney would beat Obama. As a midyear update, this year I predicted neither Clinton nor Bush would be leading their respective polls at the end of 2015 and so far, those prognostications are looking pretty good.
But I did not see the Donald Trump candidacy coming, let alone his current appeal and momentum.
When I heard Trump deliver his announcement speech, I did predict at that time that his message, “Let’s make America great again,” would resonate well.  Based on our recent poll (see results below), more than a quarter of our respondents like him. The political pollsters show Trump in the 20+% range in the polls, but as other candidates drop out, can he pick up their supporters? More than 70% of our sample would probably no.
Trump has something in common with both of the Democrat frontrunners. He’s like the thorn in Hillary’s side, Bernie Sanders, the self-avowed socialist, because they’re both authentic. Look for authenticity to be valuable political currency in 2016. But sometimes Trump’s authenticity results in, as my father used to warn me, letting his mouth overload his backside. Right now he’s spending authenticity to buy forgiveness. But unlike his billions of real capital, Trump won’t have as much redemption capital to spend. He doesn’t have to become politically correct to be nominated, but he will have to become more politically disciplined.
Trump is like Hillary in that they both have baggage. Lots and lots of baggage. While Hillary’s baggage includes potential legal weight, Trump doesn’t seem to have that. But he has led a colorful multi-media life on his way to becoming the personification of a rich self-promoter. A successful nomination will require Trump to overcome certain inelegant segments of his life, and he’ll have to divest from his empire. No small feat either. There might be a reason Ziegfeld and Barnum never ran for president.
At this moment I don’t feel froggy enough to jump to a conclusion as to whether Trump can become the Republican nominee. But I am prepared to say that Donald Trump will have a significant impact on who the Republican nominee is. And I’ll tell you who that will be, January 1, 2016.

RESULTS: What’s your plan for federal candidates?

The Question:
With midterm elections barely two months away, what’s your plan for federal candidates?

3% - I’ll be more inclined to vote Democrat.
63% - I’ll be more inclined to vote  Republican.
29% - I vote for the individual, not any party.
5% - I probably won’t vote.

Jim’s Comments:
The mid-term elections in a second term has rarely been much fun for any U.S. president. Consequently, President Obama’s party isn’t supposed to do well this November. But as you can see, if our recent online poll of small business owners has any general election implications, this is going to be an extraordinarily bad mid-term cycle for the Democrats.  I’m going to have more to say about this response to the upcoming mid-term election in the Feature Article next week.

Small Business Advocate Poll: Political conventions and dinosaurs

The Question:
Did the political conventions impact your voting plans?

4% - My mind was not changed. I’m still voting for Obama/Biden.

76%- My mind was not changed. I’m still voting for Romney/Ryan.

2% - My mind was changed. I’m now voting for Obama/Biden.

2% - My mind was changed. I’m now voting for Romney/Ryan.

16% - I still haven’t decided.

My Comments
In two previous polls, we wanted to gauge your interest with regard to political conventions and, as you know, we reported those responses - with my commentary - at the end of each convention.

For our most recent poll - post-conventions - we wanted to know how successful you thought they were, so we asked: “Did the political conventions impact your voting plans?” Here’s what you said:

Four percent of our sample said “My mind was not changed. I’m still voting for Obama/Biden, compared to 76% who said they remained committed to Romney/Ryan.

In the mind-changing category, 2% for each party said their minds had been changed by the conventions. And finally, those reporting they are still undecided - arguably the most powerful political influencers in America - came in at 16%.

So here’s what I’m getting from the past three weeks of poll responses:

  • Small business owners are more likely to be Republicans than Democrats.
  • Both parties had very little success in changing minds.
  • There are still - incredibly - a lot of people who haven’t made up their minds about who they will vote for.
  • National conventions are experiencing the same fate as the dinosaurs.

Thanks for participating in our polls, especially these associated with the election cycle in progress. Whether we like it or not, politics impacts our businesses and, as owners, we must engage in the debate and the process. Otherwise, we will be relegated to taking what politicians - and special interest groups - give us, making the assumption that we don’t care.

Small business owners, let’s begin the process of taking back our country and reinstalling Main Street values of authenticity, intellectual honesty, accountability, market-based solutions and reverence for the U.S. Constitution.

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Bill Brandt

Rich Galen

On my radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show, I talked about the impact of the 2012 political conventions and their validity in the future with Bill BrandtPresident and CEO of Development Specialists, Inc. and Democrat pundit, and Rich Galen, publisher of Mullings.com and Republican operative. Click on on the links below to download or listen.

Will political conventions be part of our political future? with Bill Brandt

Who won the battle of the conventions? with Rich Galen

Check out more great SBA content HERE!

Watch Jim’s videos HERE!

Take this week’s poll HERE!

Small Business Advocate Poll: Don’t mess with small business

The Question:
As a small business owner, which political party do you think is more closely aligned with your future success?

8% - Democrats

62% - Republican

17% - Libertarian

13% - None of the above

My Commentary:
Those who are aligned with the Democrat Party came in at 8%. The big number, 62%, came from our respondents who claim the Republican Party. Libertarians represented 17% of our sample. Thirteen percent allowed they couldn’t find a political home with any of these three.

Libertarians have many political differences with Republicans. However, when it comes to policies that impact operating a business, like taxes, regulations, trade, etc., Libertarians and Republicans are usually not far apart. So, if our audience is representative of the small business sector - and I think it is - it’s reasonable to predict that this sector will break significantly for Mitt Romney on November 6.

Consequently, when the President makes statements like, “You didn’t build that,” it probably won’t hurt him too much with the small business sector, because most of them are not likely to vote for him anyway. But there is another potential effect to consider.

Polls indicate that small business owners are highly regarded by Americans. So the question is: How many independent voters will hold the President’s comments, practices and policies that seem to be unfriendly to small business, against him? It may not be many, but in battleground states, like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, it might be enough to change the outcome.

These are the kinds of nuances in the ten battleground states that will likely decide who the next president is.

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This week on The Small Business Advocate Show, I talked more about what you said about which political party you believe is more aligned with your small business’s ability to succeed. Click here to download or listen.

Check out more great SBA content HERE!

Take this week’s poll HERE!

Small Business Advocate Poll: What issue or allegiance will impact voting in November 2012?

The Question:
What issue or allegiance will have the greatest impact on how you vote in the November 2012 elections?

54% - The economy

30% - Deficit spending and the national debt

14% - My political party

3% - Other

My Commentary:
One of the most interesting things about modern politics is the concept of a single-issue voter. These folks vote for, or against, things that impact a single issue they are the most passionate about, like the environment, trade, unions support, the abortion issue, just to name a few of the classic examples. Indeed, both parties and many lobbying groups count on single-issue voters as a predictable and passionate constituent base.

But there is a new passion emerging this year that may cause voters to forsake their previous commitment to a single-issue. Based on the results of our most recent poll, it looks like the new normal for single-issue issues is associated with economics.

Last week, in our online poll, we asked this question: “What issue or allegiance will have the greatest impact on how you vote in the November 2012 elections?” Over half, 54%, said “The economy, and 30% chose “Deficit spending and the national debt.” Only 14% of our sample said they would vote for “My party,” and just 3% chose “Other.”

As we move closer to election day on November 6, dozens of issues will be debated and nuanced ad nauseam. But responses to our poll seem to indicate that the issue on the mind of most folks, as Clinton advisor, James Carville so famously said 20 years ago in the 1992 campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Check out more great SBA content HERE!

Take this week’s poll HERE!

If the Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for?

One of the annoying things about being a citizen of the United States is also one of the things that makes being an American so great: our political process.

But with regard to the annoying bits, perhaps the most irritating is what seems like very little relief from presidential campaigning. It’s as if the occupant of the White House is always campaigning, while the opposition party starts its run against the president at least two years before the election.

It seems to take the first year of the opposition party’s effort to unseat the president just to eliminate the also-rans - who never were serious candidates - during which time the serious players hone their campaigning skills. By the year of the election, there are usually a small handful that duke it out during the primary phase until finally, one is victorious and gets the nomination.

So here we are in that opposition party phase and in most polls, former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, is currently seen as the Republican front-runner. Since there are at present upwards of a dozen Republican hopefuls - too many to list - we decided to see how Romney stacks up at this moment against President Obama, so in last week’s poll, we asked, “If the Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for?”

There are many political experts who think Romney cannot beat Obama in the next election, but based on our respondents, these experts may be wrong. A little more than 60% of our sample said they would choose Romney over Obama at this time. The numbers for the president looked bleak, with only 14% saying Obama should get a second term. Those who said they were “Undecided,” came in at 24%, which could also mean that they would have chosen another Republican candidate if we had listed them all. We’ll keep polling you on this topic as the Republican field narrows over the next year.

As you consider who will lead the U.S. government from 2013-2016, please consider supporting the candidate that is the most favorable for small business. Because, as you’ve likely heard me say before, what is good for your small business is good for America - and the world.

Click here to listen to my conversations on the 2012 elections and small business with smarter people than me, like Steve Forbes and Grace-Marie Turner.




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