Tag Archive for 'economy'

Online Poll: How do you feel about the future of America?

The Question: As you contemplate Independence Day, how do you feel about the future of America?

8% - America’s best days are still ahead.
6% - America’s best days are behind us.
83% - America’s in trouble, but we can still turn it around.
3% - Never mind America, the whole world is going to hell!

Jim’s Comments: As you will see in the results of our recent online poll above, more than eight of ten of our respondents have serious concerns about America’s condition and future, with only 8% who’re optimistic about how things are. By comparison, the national average reported by Real Clear Politics — which homogenizes seven large polls — reports two-thirds of Americans think we’re “on the wrong track.” Perhaps the reason our folks rank their concerns a little higher than other polls is because we’re responsible for making payroll every week or two, which, under the current regulatory and economic conditions, is getting more and more difficult.

The last time I saw this level of concern among Americans was almost 40 years ago, during the Carter Administration. In fact, President Jimmy gave the name to the general national feeling that was pervasive during the last half of his one and only term. In a television address, he actually said there seemed to be a kind of “malaise” in the country. He was right.

Jimmy Carter is a good man, but was a poor leader. Granted, he inherited some challenging issues, but he wasn’t a problem solver and didn’t inspire confidence. Does that sound familiar? Replace the name at the beginning of that sentence with Barack Obama and everything to follow fits, with one exception: Obama has had two terms to make a difference. Sadly, if you converted the polling numbers for our national condition under this president’s watch to letters they would spell: malaise.

And my criticism isn’t political — I worship at the throne of results. Two things cause Americans to have a positive outlook: feeling secure and feeling successful. Unfortunately, looking at the facts — and the polls — in front of our eyes, these two areas are not positive.

Here are four simple traits that I would like to see in our next president, and I don’t care which party the possessor of these comes from:

  • Proven leader who hates mediocrity
  • Passionate about America’s greatness
  • Politically incorrect about defending America
  • Believes economy can grow at more than 2%

    What does your list look like? If you’d like to tell me, leave a comment.

  • Mr. President, a recovery is not an expansion

    Dear President Obama:

    For as long as there have been organized economies there have been economic cycles, of which there are essentially three elements:

    • Beginning at the bottom, a recession (sometimes, but rarely, a depression). Historically, sir, recessions are short – often measured in months.
    • In the middle is a recovery, which has the task of healing the defects that caused the downturn while reversing negative growth. Depending on the severity of the recession, recoveries take a little longer, from months to a year or so.
    • And finally, the tide that floats all boats, the expansion. Expansions can last for years, as they did under two of your predecessors, Reagan and Clinton.

    In America, we expect a recovery to be a means to an end, not a way of life. Alas, that isn’t your standard, because perpetual recovery has been our economic fate since you took office, four months before the Great Recession ended in June 2009.

    Recently, in a speech in Elkhart, Indiana, you said this: “By almost every economic measure, America is better off than when I came here at the beginning of my presidency.” Those of us who have made payroll every month of your tenure see things differently, as, apparently, does your own Department of Labor. Two days after the Elkhart speech, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a measly 38,000 jobs were created in May – the worst jobs month in six years. And labor participation – the number of Americans who work – has languished under your watch at rates not seen since the last president who manufactured malaise, President Carter. You can’t have an expansion, sir, if people aren’t working.

    Let’s review your economic performance, Mr. President, by the numbers. First, we’ll cut you some slack and throw out your first year in office, 2009. The recession ended halfway through, but ’09 was a horrible year you didn’t create, going almost 3 percent negative. But the next six years, through 2015, the economy averaged a pitiful 2.15% GDP growth. Those are not expansion numbers, sir, and they’re the worst for any president since World War II. Any economist will tell you an expansion is annual growth averaging at least 3%. By the way, 2016 is not trending any better than the past six.

    It’s a misnomer to refer to a president as “handling of the economy,” because there are really only two ways you factor directly into its performance: 1) helping by getting government out of the way of job creators; and 2) hurting by putting government in the way. Mr. President, you’ve set a record for the latter as an unprecedented assaulter on job creators. Your weapons are:

    • Anti-business rhetoric – “You didn’t build that” and referring to successful people as “fortunate” who need to pay their “fair share”;
    • Anti-business laws – both the specter and the reality of Obamacare, plus Dodd-Frank, to name the big two;
    • Anti-business regulations, guidance and executive orders from your EPA, NLRB, Labor and FCC.

    All of these are unprecedented for any president in their tone, scope, and damage. Not to mention the palpable fear and uncertainty that manifested among job creators.

    Here’s more evidence: The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism, the gold standard for such research, reports the longest stretch of pessimism in the Index’s 43 years during your presidency. This from the sector that creates over half of the jobs and half of the U.S. economy. In my own polling of small business owners, only 9% think you have “been good for the economy,” while more than two-thirds think your policies have been “an economic nightmare.”

    Referring to the economy in the Elkhart speech, you said, “We can make it even stronger.” Who are “we,” Mr. President? The Oval Office door will soon hit you in the backside for the last time. With all due respect, sir, if “we” make “it” stronger, that will happen after you leave.

    Write this on a rock … Out here on Main Street, Mr. President, we’re not going to miss you when you’re gone.

    Now is the winter of our economic discontent

    If you’re wondering how the economy’s doing, here’s what top news outlets are reporting: “U.S. GDP Fizzles in the fourth quarter” (Marketwatch.com); “Economy grinds to a halt in last quarter 2015” (Money.CNN.com).

    But there’s good news: Q1 2016 GDP is projected to be in the 2% range, unlike the two previous first quarters in 2014 and 2015, which were both negative. It’s asking a lot of the other three quarters to put together a good year when you start out in the hole.

    One of the ways I take the pulse of the Main Street economy is through our weekly online poll. Recently we asked this question: “Halfway through the 1st quarter, how’s the local economy producing sales for you?” When I compare the responses we got this time to similar questions over the past four or five years, I see movement toward the middle from the top and bottom. Let me explain.

    The top group, 13% reporting sales as “great,” is lower than past polls, which have been consistently closer to 25%. The bottom group, who are “in trouble,” came in at 3%, down from around 15%.

    Then we have the two in the middle: Those who said their sales volume was off represents about a third of our sample, a little higher before; and those who reported sales as good but not great, increased to half of our responses, up from about 35% in the past. By the way, our poll tracks very closely to the January NFIB Small Business Index and a new AICPA survey.

    Our latest measurement reflects the current condition of Main Street businesses: fewer are doing great, while the “just okay” and “not quite as good” are increasing, with the bottom group succumbing to the insidious condition CNSNews.com just reported as a “record 1o years with the U.S. economy less than 3%.”

    With a decade of stagnation, the last seven years of which can be attributed to the anti-business rhetoric and policies of the Obama administration, any performance improvement by small firms is attributed to better management practices and the kind of dint of will only found on Main Street.

    Economists I regard are predicting 2016 GDP growth of about 2.5%. With the condition of the global economic and geo-political challenges, achieving this level of annual growth will be largely on the backs of the American consumer and the discipline – past and present – of millions of Main Street small businesses.

    Here’s good news no one else is talking about: When the economy finally does convert from our 10-year winter of discontent to an actual expansion, surviving small businesses will be so organizationally and financially sound that they will be set to make more profits than anyone has ever seen.

    Write this on a rock … But only those who survive.

    Poll results: Your local economy and sales

    The Question:
    Halfway through the 1st quarter, what’s the condition of the local economy and your sales?

    13% - Our economy is strong and sales are great.
    50% - Our economy and sales are good, but not great.
    34% - Our economy is weakening — sales volume is off.
    3% - Our economy is very weak, and we’re in trouble.

    Jim’s Comments:

    I think our poll response reflects exactly what the economy is doing: fewer are doing great, more are getting a little better and, after seven years of a moribund economy, most of the troubled companies have already closed up. I’m going to have a lot more to say about this in my Featured Column next week, so stay tuned.

    Thanks for your abiding support of our poll each week. Check out our new one below.

    With the success of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, is the political midpoint of the American electorate shifting left?

    Poll Results: What grade would you give President Obama?

    The Question:
    From the standpoint of the impact on your business, what grade would you give President Obama for his time in office?

    5% - A
    6% - B
    6% - C
    9% - D
    74% - F

    Jim’s Comments:
    As you can see, President Obama is a failure to three-fourths of our small business audience. It’s been clear from day one that the president has been ambivalent to the Main Street economy atbest, and against us at worst. In seven years in office, the only policy he’s proposed that looks anything like pro-business is the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal he cut last year.

    On the other side of the coin, the anti-business stuff is a long list, which I’m going to innumerate in an article in the near future. Stay tuned. Thanks for participating.

    And thanks for your abiding support of our poll each week. Check out our new one on how you would vote today, click here.

    To listen to more about these poll results, click on the link below.

    Small business owners have give Obama a grade

    Is 2016 trending as the year of our next recession?

    One of the distinct markers of the United States is what has been termed our “consumer economy.”

    It’s pretty intuitive.

    Having a consumer economy means that the main driver of GDP (gross domestic product), and therefore, the engine of economic growth, comes from spending by consumers. Other major elements that make up the entire U.S. economy include private investment, government spending and trade.

    America is not unique in this distinction, but no other major economy in the world compares to the U.S. in this definition. For example, American consumers represented 71% of GDP in 2013, having risen from 62% in 1960. Around the globe, Japanese consumers are 61% of their economy, with only 36% in China. And in the major European countries, consumers average less than 60% of GDP.

    The U.S. has experienced an increasingly robust consumer economy for generations. But one of the implications that has arisen for, let’s say, the past half century is that consumers are more likely to spend their money than save it. There are many reasons for this imbalance: America is the strongest economy in the world; has a diverse credit industry with creative products; and produces and imports a lot of cool stuff, which Americans want even if they have to borrow, instead of save, to get it.

    The world economy has long benefited from the exuberance, rational or not, of the U.S. consumer. Indeed, during the global slowdown of the late 1990s and early 2000s, the U.S. consumer almost single-handedly kept the global economy from collapsing. But today, with a declining global economic scenario, will American consumers reprise their earlier role as economic champion? A new data point may provide that answer.

    Recently, in our online poll, we asked small business owners if the significant drop in gasoline prices ($1/gallon in six months) was manifesting as increased spending by their customers. Less than one-fourth of our respondents reported such a trend was evident or slightly evident, while almost half said they saw no such evidence.

    One of the reasons for the consistent moribund U.S. economy since 2008 has been the debt-reducing behavior of both American businesses and consumers. But it now seems the consumer’s cash conservatism continues unabated because, in addition to our poll results, other surveys indicate people are using the gas price dividend to reduce debt and save.

    During the first quarters of 2014 and 2015 the U.S. economy went negative, producing one half of a technical recession, while the Dow Jones Index rose to new record highs. But 2016 has begun with stock indexes retrenching toward bear territory, a decline in both imports and exports, and no apparent help from consumers. Consequently, a negative Q1 this year may prove to be just the first one, rather than a one-off like the past two years.

    Write this on a rock … The best way to not participate in a recession is to be prepared for one.




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