Tag Archive for 'economics'

Jim Blasingame’s 2016 Crystal Ball Predictions

Here is the 16th edition of my New Year predictions.

· Wall Street’s digital greed, Washington’s anti-business policies and collusion between the two continue to create a moribund Main Street economic environment for small businesses.

· With a declining global economy and having exhausted financial manipulation options since 2008, capital markets will struggle in 2016.

· Main Street small businesses that are mature and established will fare well in 2016.

· Economic and regulatory pressures, plus demographic trends will perpetuate an unprecedented population decline in small businesses.

· New Crowdfunding rules lowering the standards for direct investment in small businesses will not become a funding silver bullet for this sector.

· Unlike its investor equity sibling, Crowdfunding lending will proliferate across the small business sector (especially with Generation Y) at the expense of traditional banks.

· Global headwinds, the specter of terrorism, seven years of anti-business policies from the Obama administration, and the unprecedented drama of presidential politics will all contribute to a flat 2016 economy, with annual GDP stuck below 2.5%.

· The perfect storm of a slowing global economy, a crude oil glut, newly approved exports from U.S. producers and OPEC’s loss of pricing power, will keep crude averaging below $50 per barrel.

· Slow global growth and deflationary threats will prevent the Fed from making more than one rate increase in 2016, if that.

· Due to the sustained price decline in crude oil, Putin and Iran will become more desperate and dangerous, using nationalism to distract citizens from their declining economies.

·  In an unprecedented response to ISIS, moderate Muslims around the globe will denounce intolerance and violence in the name of their religion in more actively claiming their role as the 21st century stewards of Islam.

· You will hear more about blockchains and distributed-ledger technology applications, disconnected from Bitcoin. This is very complicated stuff, but it’s the future of currency and capital management, so just start learning.

·  A mere shadow of its former self, Obamacare will continue to collapse under its own structural defects, causing the President’s namesake policy to go from legacy icon to caricature.

·  Already referred to by pundits as “the lawless president,” in his last year Obama will increase his assault on the Constitution with more unprecedented, and now desperate, executive actions.

· Obama’s newest Constitutional assault will be on the 2nd Amendment. Buckle up.

· Obama’s Justice Department will not indict Hillary Clinton in 2016, but as evidence of her lying achieves critical mass it will cost HRC Millennial votes, who value honesty over political ideology.

· The GOP primary process will not produce an apparent nominee going into their convention, unless it’s Trump or Cruz.

· Republicans will not win the White House unless the ticket includes a Hispanic and at least one person from Ohio and/or Florida. Look for Trump/Rubio or Cruz/Kasich.

· The social conservatism of Republicans and the socialistic economics of Democrats will create electoral challenges for both parties in 2016.

· If Trump wins the election, it will be because he’s the only candidate most likely to avoid defending the bankrupt elements of either party.

·  A liberal member of the Supreme Court will exit in 2016, probably in the first half.

· With every member of Generation Y, aka Millennials (80+ million born 1978-1998), old enough to vote in 2016, the electoral influence by this generation is now at critical mass.

· More than just a president, the 2016 election results will reveal the future trajectory of liberty and opportunity in America.

· Alabama will become the NCAA Football Division I Champion.

Write this on a rock …My 15-year record is almost 73% accuracy. Politics may put that average in jeopardy this year.

Jim Blasingame is author of the award-winning book, The Age of the Customer: Prepare for the Moment of Relevance.

Blasingame’s 2015 Crystal Ball predictions

Here are my predictions for 2015. My 14-year record is 73% accuracy.

Prediction: Geopolitics, geo-competition and the supply/demand dynamic for crude oil won’t find equilibrium anytime soon, causing prices to fluctuate, but average less than $70 per barrel.

Prediction: Buoyed by consumers buoyed by low gas prices and six years of recovery fatigue, the U.S. economy will grow, but global economic headwinds and currency influences on exports will result in U.S. annual GDP averaging near an unremarkable 3%.

Prediction: Consumer optimism will produce small business contribution to GDP greater than any year since the Great Recession.

Prediction: An improving economy, plus anticipation of a business-friendly 114th Congress will cause an upward trend in small business optimism toward NFIB Index’s 42-year average of 100 points.

Prediction: Small business loan demand will increase as growth opportunities exceed the ability to fund them with organic capital resources.

Prediction: With organizational productivity maxed out, even marginal economic growth will cause small and large businesses to increase hiring.

Prediction: Continued concern about the fragility of the U.S. and global economies will cause the Fed to maintain monetary easing by keeping the Fed Funds rate unchanged.

Prediction: In June the Supreme Court will deliver a catastrophic structural blow to Obamacare in a 5-4 ruling that the law does not permit subsidies to enrollees in the 36 states with Federal exchanges.

Prediction: The GOP-controlled Congress and President Obama will accomplish one thing together in 2015: tax reform.

Prediction: Congressional Republicans will successfully thwart the execution of Obama’s executive order on immigration.

Prediction: The Sony hack and subsequent corporate cyber-terror threat by North Korea will for the first time in history manifest in cyber-security practices of corporate America being elevated to de facto national security concerns.

Prediction: The unprecedented terror threat on a U.S. corporation by a foreign state in Dec 2014 will cause the U.S. government to constrain private firms from responding to such threats on their own.

Prediction: In political theater redux, a Clinton and a Bush will become presidential candidates in the next cycle, but neither will be their party’s front-runners by year-end.

Prediction: Oregon will defeat Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.

Prediction: Alabama will win the inaugural NCAA Division I Championship Game Jan. 10.

Write this on a rock … Obamacare will continue to make news in 2015, as will oil, cyber-security and a mixed bag of global economic conditions.





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