Tag Archive for 'economic trends'

RESULTS: How is the economy looking for your business as we enter the last trimester of 2014?

The Question:
How is the economy looking for your business as we enter the last trimester of 2014?

36% - This year has been great and we plan to finish strong.
29% - This hasn’t been a great year, but it looks like we’ll finish strong
14% -  We started out well, but the rest of the year doesn’t look so good.
21% - We’re not going to have a good year, first half or last half.

Jim’s Comments:
Comparing our poll this week to similar results over the past couple of years, it actually looks like small business owners are finally feeling more confident about the economy. In previous polls we’ve barely gotten half of our audience to say they were optimistic about the next few months. But this week almost two-thirds like what they see for the last third of the year.

As you know, I now consider Main Street, not Wall Street, to be the leading indicator of the economy. If I’m right, this poll response is good news we can count on–at least unless Wall Street and/or Washington does something stupid to derail all of our hard work.

Main Street, not Wall Street, is the leading economic indicator

What sector of the U.S. marketplace produces over half of the economy, signs the front of over half of U.S. private payroll checks, and is the perennial new job engine?

No, it’s not Corporate America or Wall Street banks. It’s Small Business America. If this sector were a sovereign country it would be the largest economy in the world.

So why does Wall Street, instead of Main Street, get all of the economic media coverage?

William Dunkelberg, Ph.D., NFIB’s Chief Economist, is the oracle of the Main Street economy. For more than 40 years his monthly Small Business Optimism Index has been the gold standard for this sector. Alas, since 2007 his Index has recorded an unprecedented cycle of sustained levels below the 40-year optimism average. Find the Index at smallbus.org and NFIB.com.  Plus Bill reports his findings on my radio program every month.

On the other end of the precious metals scale of small business polling, closer to the copper standard, is me. For several years my online poll has asked small business owners weekly about their take on the economy. Recently we asked which of five business issues is the most pressing:  cash flow, a business loan, more customers, Obamacare, taxes and/or regulations.

Here’s what we learned:

SmallTownUSA

One marker of sustained business success since 2008 is deleveraging, which manifests, in part, as improved cash flow. Consequently, when cash flow concern registers only a 16% response, and loan demand gets no takers, these are the two sides of the deleveraging coin. But low loan demand also means low growth expectation.

Obamacare barely moved the worry meter at 5% in our poll because this issue will be dormant until Q4 2014, when we learn what the 2015 employer mandate will cost.

The big concerns, more customers at 54% and taxes/regulations at 25%, can be taken two ways: No one admits to having enough business and no one likes taxes and regs. But based on the economic indicators of the first half of 2014, plus recent tax increases and out-of-control growth of regulations that disproportionately hurt small businesses, these are not gratuitous responses; they’re the true top concerns of small businesses. And they track with the NFIB Index.

As I’ve been saying since 2006, Wall Street is no longer a leading indicator of the economy; it’s now merely a leading indicator of itself. If you want to know the true condition of the U.S. economy, listen to Main Street small business owners.

Write this on a rock … The small business sector is now the true leading economic indicator of the U.S.

Jim Blasingame is the author of the award-winning book, “The Age of the Customer: Prepare for the Moment of Relevance.”

The big concerns, more customers at 54% and taxes/regulations at 25%, can be taken two ways: No one admits to having enough business and no one likes taxes and regs. But based on the economic indicators of the first half of 2014, plus recent tax increases and out-of-control growth of regulations that disproportionately hurt small businesses, these are not gratuitous responses; they’re the true top concerns of small businesses. And they track with the NFIB Index.

As I’ve been saying since 2006, Wall Street is no longer a leading indicator of the economy; it’s now merely a leading indicator of itself. If you want to know the true condition of the U.S. economy, listen to Main Street small business owners.

Write this on a rock …

The small business sector is now the true leading economic indicator of the U.S.

Jim Blasingame is the author of the award-winning book, “The Age of the Customer: Prepare for the Moment of Relevance.”

The Dec 09 NFIB report of small business conditions

The recession may be over technically speaking, but that’s not how it feels to most small businesses on Main Street.  They’re still having a tough time getting enough customers to show up to grow sales and profits, and are not looking to make capital improvements or hire new employees to any great extent. 

It distresses me to report on this kind of news, but my job, as legendary sports announcer, Howard Cossell, used to say, is to tell it like it is. I believe 2010 will be a better year than 2009, but it doesn’t feel like that right now for many Main Street small businesses, especially retailers.

Of course, much of the small business conditions I report on comes from the high quality, peerless research of world-class economist, Dr. William Dunkelberg. Bill is professor of economics at Temple, chief economist for the NFIB and an invaluable member of my Brain Trust.  I used the word “peerless” earlier in referring to Bill’s work.  He has been tracking small business sentiments every month since 1971, throught all of the marketplace cycles. Any questions? 

Recently, Bill joined me on my radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show, to discuss in detail the results of the Dec 09 NFIB’s Report of Small Business Economic Trends.  Take a few minutes to listen to this conversation and, as always, leave your own thoughts on the status of the economy as it relates to your business. Listen Live! Download, Too!




Warning: fsockopen() [function.fsockopen]: php_network_getaddresses: getaddrinfo failed: Temporary failure in name resolution in /var/www/wordpress/wp-includes/class-snoopy.php on line 1142

Warning: fsockopen() [function.fsockopen]: unable to connect to twitter.com:80 (Unknown error) in /var/www/wordpress/wp-includes/class-snoopy.php on line 1142