Tag Archive for 'economic recovery'

Small business economics

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on July 18, 2011
in Economy: National and Global, Politics and Sales - Sales Management
. 0 Comments

Two years after the technical end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy is still struggling to recover. It’s clear that the residual of the causes of this downturn have yet to be absorbed. In fact, GDP growth for 2011 is tracking at a slower pace than last year.

As we’ve done periodically in the past year, we recently asked our audiences about their experience in the economy right now. We asked, “Based on your small business right now, which of the following most closely fits the economic conditions you’re experiencing?”

The first choice, “Up - our business is good,” was chosen by barely more than one in ten of our respondents. This is pretty close to the top response in the last poll we took.

The middle question, “Flat - we’re doing okay, but growth is slow,” was the big group, coming in at 65% of our sample. The last options, “Down - we’re barely holding on,” was admitted by almost one-fourth of our respondents.

With almost 90% percent of our poll participants reporting either slow or no growth, this, unfortunately seems to track pretty close with other polls I report about on my radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show, as well as the national economic indicators.

It’s clear to me that the U.S. economy is not going to grow until small businesses are able to grow.  What part of this is lost on the so-called leaders in Washington who are doing more than anyone to dampen the enthusiasm of America’s marketplace heroes, small business owners?

How do you feel about what our political leaders are doing to stimulate the economy?

I talked more about the economy and small business on my radio program, The Small Business Advocate. Take a few minutes to listen…

Whose policies are responsible for the slow economy?

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on July 8, 2011
in Economy: National and Global, Management Fundamentals and Presidential policies
. 0 Comments

The end of this month is the second anniversary of the technical end of the Great Recession.  Alas, what I have called the not-so-great recovery has been so not-great that for many, the technical end date is nothing more than a data-point with little correspondence to what’s happening in real life.

Some of the unemployment stats are at or near records, with millions of Americans cyclically or structurally out of work, many chronically so. One-fourth of homeowners with mortgages are upside-down, a term for when you owe more than the underlying asset. And now, almost three years after the financial meltdown of 2008, the economy is softening to the point that some talking heads are talking another recession - the dreaded “double dip.”

Clearly, many of our problems have been brought on by digital greed and not a little marketplace malfeasance. As that legendary possum philosopher, Pogo, once said, “We have seen the enemy, and he is us.” But it’s just as clear that the political class has to answer for their bumblings, bad policies and political non-leadership.

We wanted to know how our audience felt about how much of our pain can be attributed to that person upon whose desk the Harry Truman buck stops.  So last week, in our poll question on the website and in the Newsletter, we asked, “Whose policies do you think are more responsible for the current painfully slow economy?”

Those who thought our economic woes were “… more of a residual of President Bush’s policies,” represented 15% of our respondents.  A little less than 40% said, “After 2.5 years, this is President Obama’s economy.”  But the big number - almost half - said, “I blame the policies of both administrations.”

One of the ways politicians get re-elected is to make us feel that they have the answers to our problems and, given the chance, will fix them. But that sword has two edges and the other side cuts deeper with accountability for perceived, if not real, mistakes.

In Shakespeare’s play, Julius Caesar, Mark Anthony’s eulogy of Caesar includes this passage: “The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones.”

And so it is to this day.

Click here to take this week’s poll on government regulations.

Surviving the not-so-great recovery

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on May 31, 2011
in Economy: National and Global and Management Fundamentals
. 0 Comments

After the technical end of the Great Recession in the summer of 2009, I predicted the letter that would most accurately describe this recovery is not a “U,” an “L” or even a “W,” but rather, an “M” – for marathon. After working in six previous recessions, to me everything pointed to a very long and grinding economic period.

Alas, my prediction has come to pass. Seven quarters into the not-so-great recovery, GDP for Q1 2011 came in at only 1.8%, which caused economists, who had earlier projected 2011 growth of at least 3% for the year, to lower their expectations.

We wanted to know what our small business audience thought about the economy, so for the third time in a year we used our online survey to ask, “What does the economy look like for your small business for 2011?” Here are the three options, with each response followed by how similar questions were answered previously.

Those who said, “We’re experiencing solid growth and expect the same through 2011,” represented 14% of respondents. In the previous survey, 29% were this optimistic.

The next choice, “Our growth is similar to the national trend – up, but barely,” was chosen by 40% of our sample, which is very close to the 43% choosing a similar option in the previous survey. Unfortunately, 46% of our respondents said, “It still feels like a recession,” which is up from 28% making this choice in the previous poll.

Our survey, while unscientific, is supported by others that are: The NFIB small business survey indicated optimism declined again in April, and the Tatum, LLC survey has been reporting more red arrows than green ones all year. Clearly, overall small business economic sentiment has eroded.

But sentiment shmentiment! As the CEO of your small business, it’s your job to balance the force of entrepreneurial optimism with the gravity of economic reality. That means:

• Giving every customer the maximum opportunity to do business with you while serving that customer with maximum efficiency.

• Combining your service “special sauce” with every technological innovation you can find.

• Keeping your team motivated and inspired while running the most deliberate, disciplined and methodical business marathon of your life.

• Believing that it’s okay to fall in love with what you do, but not with how you do it.

Remember the ten most powerful two-letter words:  If it is to be, it is up to me.

Recently on my radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show, I talked more about how small businesses feel about this marathon recovery. Take a few minutes to listen and leave your comments on the recovery.

How are small businesses handling this M recovery? with Jim Blasingame

Future Employee Planning

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on May 24, 2011
in Hiring and Human Resources
. 0 Comments

The Question: What is the likelihood that you will hire at least one person this year?

50% - We will definitely be hiring this year.

22% - If the economy improves we will have to hire.

28% - We will not be adding any employees this year.

Jim’s comment:
America needs new jobs. We wanted to check on the hiring attitude of our small business audience, so we asked this question: “What is the likelihood that you will hire at least one person this year?” The news was encouraging.

Fully half of our respondents said, “We will definitely be hiring this year.” America needs more CEOs drinking this Kool-Aid.

A little over one in five of our sample said, “If the economy improves we will have to hire.” Perhaps the employment leadership of the first group will encourage these folks in the middle to find hiring confidence.

The last group, representing a little more than a quarter of our sample, said, “We will not be adding any employees this year.”

Considering where unemployment is, plus all the other headwinds pushing back on economic recovery, I am encouraged by the response this week. You go, small business owners. America - and the world - really needs you right now.

To participate in this weeks poll on mobile phones, click here.

Possible titles for “The Small Business Movie”

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on March 23, 2011
in Economy: National and Global
. 0 Comments

One of the great icons of Americana is Hollywood, including all the epic movies with almost breathtaking titles, like “Gone with the Wind.”

Among my favorites is a war movie with such a title, “In Harm’s Way.” A more recent one that isn’t a war movie, but has a compelling title is, “Against All Odds.”

If anyone ever made a movie about the American small business, either of these three would be a perfect title. Creating something from nothing in a rude marketplace - often with little or no capital, in the face of entrenched Big Box, local and Internet competitors - is as close to “in harm’s way” as you can get without dodging enemy fire. And against all odds, less than half of small businesses survive five years while less than one-third of those make it to the second generation.

If your small business has come through the Great Recession and the Not-So-Great Recovery, you’ve gone in harm’s way and survived, against all odds. And based on recent surveys - the very sophisticated and the not-so-very - many small businesses still have harm to avoid and odds to challenge.

The most recent and very sophisticated NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism reported that while optimism has spent many quarters below the 100-point historical baseline, the recent 0.4% rise to 94.5% score, means while we may not like the number, we like the trend. When most small business owners report optimism about their future, the gold standard NFIB Index will hit or exceed 100.

Recently, my not-so-very-sophisticated online survey of small business owners answered this question: “With two months of 2011 behind us, how is the recovery going compared to last year?” Those who said, “The economy is definitely improving” represented 28% of respondents. Those who said “Sales revenue is better, but the recovery is still slow,” came in at 43%. And the group reporting “Sales revenue is not growing,” was 30% of our sample.

Remember my two admonitions about dealing with this recovery: 1) It’s going to be a marathon. Pace yourself with discipline and patience; and 2) If you’re in the majority that isn’t feeling the recovery, find out what the apparently very happy minority is doing.

Here’s another epic war movie title I think you’ll agree would fit that small business movie, “The Longest Day.” It’s about what it takes to avoid being gone with the wind.

Recently on The Small Business Advocate Show, I talked more about The Small Business Movie - click on the link below to listen. I also talked with Bill Dunkelberg, Chief Economist at NFIB about their most recent Small Business Optimism Index. Click on one of links below to listen to our discussion. As always, please leave your comments.

NFIB reports on slow job growth and weak capital spending featuring Bill Dunkelberg
The NFIB index on sales, pricing power and credit featuring Bill Dunkelberg
Possible titles for a movie about small business featuring Jim Blasingame

How’s business?

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on December 8, 2010
in Business planning and Economy: National and Global
. 0 Comments

As I have talked with small business owners across the country over the past few months, the abiding topic of discussion is the economy. “How’s business?” I ask. The answers I get depend upon many factors:  Some industries are not good across the country, like anything connected to real estate, for example. Some markets are having a tougher time than others, with almost no industries or sectors escaping the local economic blight. Las Vegas comes to mind, as does Detroit.

But just as one person tells me things are tough, if I do an about-face and ask another small business owner, the news may well be very good.

We thought a good way to get a handle on what’s really happening in the small business sector of the economy would be to ask about growth plans for next year, so we asked this question last week:  “Based on what you see now, what are your business growth and investment expectation plans for the new year?” Here’s what our respondents told us:

One-in-five — 20% — said they were doing so well that they were definitely making plans not only to make new investments in their businesses in 2011, but also to hire new people. The next group, representing 45% of respondents, said business was improving slowly, but they expected to be able to make some upgrades of people and stuff next year.

So, the good news is, a plurality — 65% of respondents — were feeling at least some reason to be optimistic about
the future. The bad news is that more than one-third of respondents were still in bad shape, including 11% who are still experiencing a decline in business.

I’ll leave you with two thoughts that you’ve heard me say before: 1) This recovery has been rated by me as an “M” recovery, which stands for marathon; 2) Take a hard look at yourself and your organization to see of any failure to execute might be coming from within. You might need help from an outside observer to accomplish this step. Good luck.

Thanks for being part of my community. I’ll see you on the radio - and on the Internet.

To participate in the current poll question, visit www.smallbusinessadvocate.com and vote.