Tag Archive for 'crystal ball'

Results of Blasingame’s 2015 Predictions and His Score

Here are my 2015 predictions and what happened. My prior 14-year record is 73% accuracy.

Prediction: Geopolitics, geo-competition and the supply/demand dynamic for crude oil won’t find equilibrium anytime soon, causing prices to fluctuate, but average less than $70 per barrel. Plus 1 - Crude averaged around $50 per barrel for the year

Prediction: With consumers buoyed by low gas prices and six years of recovery fatigue, the U.S. economy will grow, but global economic headwinds and currency influences on exports will result in U.S. annual GDP averaging below 3%. Plus 1 – Owing to a disastrous Q1, annual GDP is closer to 2%.

Prediction: Consumer optimism will produce small business contribution to GDP greater than any year since the Great Recession. Minus 1 – Incredibly, in the sixth post-recession year, consumers, the small business sector and economy are all going in the wrong direction.

Prediction: An improving economy, plus anticipation of a business-friendly 114th Congress will cause an upward trend in small business optimism toward NFIB Index’s 42-year average of 100 points. Minus 1 – NFIB Index reports trend was no better than flat.

Prediction: Small business loan demand will increase as growth opportunities exceed the ability to fund them with organic capital resources. Plus 1 – The increase came mostly from non-traditional sources, like asset-based lenders.

Prediction: With organizational productivity maxed out, even marginal economic growth will cause small and large businesses to increase hiring. Plus 1 – Hiring did increase. But exposing the irrelevance of U3, not enough to drop true unemployment to 5%.

Prediction: Continued concern about the fragility of the U.S. and global economies will cause the Fed to maintain monetary easing by keeping the Fed Funds rate unchanged. Plus 1 – I took a lot of heat on this from every economist I know – most predicted a June rate increase.

Prediction: In King v Burwell, Supreme Court will rule 5-4 that Obamacare was written to exclude subsidies to states with Federal exchanges. Minus 1 – In the Bizarro World of the Roberts’ Court a 6-3 majority contrived that “only” really means “every.”

Prediction: The GOP-controlled Congress and President Obama will agree on tax reform in 2015.  Plus 1 – Nothing sweeping, but year-end reforms will help small business.

Prediction: Congressional Republicans will thwart the execution of Obama’s executive order on immigration. Plus 1 – This happened, with help from the Courts.

Prediction: The Sony cyber-assault by North Korea will elevate corporate America cyber-security to a de facto national security level. Plus 1 – Corporate cyber-security spending increased by 20%.

Prediction: Unprecedented foreign state cyber-assault on a U.S. corporation will cause the government to stop companies from responding to such threats on their own. Plus 1 – These conversations did happen.

Prediction: In political theater redux, a Clinton and a Bush will become presidential candidates, but neither will be their party’s front-runners by year-end. Push – Got Bush, missed Clinton. Surprised Bush hasn’t done better and Clinton’s baggage hasn’t hurt her.

Prediction: Oregon will defeat Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. Plus 1 – A 59-20 whuppin’.

Prediction: Alabama will win the inaugural NCAA Division I Championship Game Jan10. Minus 1 – My first ever football miss.

Write this on a rock …This year I went 11 for 16, or 69%, taking my 15-year record to 72.7%. How’d you do?

Blasingame’s 2009 Small Business Advocate Crystal Ball Predictions

Here are my 2009 Small Business Advocate Crystal Ball Predictions, which were first published in my free weekly Small Business Advocate Newsletter over the weekend, as well as in my newspaper syndication.

Prediction: Most financial damage in 2008 accrued to Wall Street and its stakeholders. In 2009, Main Street and small businesses will take the hit, especially in the first half.

Prediction: Economic recovery on Main Street will begin in the second half of 2009.

Prediction: Small business start-ups will be down because their initial capital comes from personal credit, which is now at unprecedented low levels.

Prediction: Small businesses that will have the most difficulty in 2009 will be retailers and sellers of big-ticket items that rely heavily on consumer credit.

Prediction: The Obama administration will produce a successful small business economic relief plan of loan guarantees and hiring tax credits.

Prediction: Independent community banks will thrive for two reasons: 1) They’re the lender-of-choice for small businesses that need local consideration; 2) Depositors will see them as more attractive than continually merging large banks.

Prediction: The Obama administration will continue the unprecedented government intervention in the economy, but positive impact will not occur until the second half of 2009.

Prediction: The Obama administration will shelve plans for the Employee Free Choice Act – designed to increase union organization – until 2010, when the economy will be recovering.

Prediction: Similarly, the Obama administration will shelve plans to pass a “cap-and-trade” bill – an attempt to regulate carbon – until 2010.

Prediction: The Obama administration will not recommend any tax increases.

Prediction: The Obama administration will justify moving forward with national healthcare reform in 2009, calling it part of economic recovery.

Prediction: The Obama administration’s attempt to create infrastructure jobs will fail.

Prediction: Comedian, Al Franken, will be the next Senator from Minnesota, leaving the Democrats one Senate Republican defector away from unfettered control of the government.

Prediction: With a justified concern for “stagflation,” the Fed will begin nudging interest rates up in Q4.

Prediction: Despite OPEC’s best efforts, oil prices will average below $65 per barrel, due to demand destruction.

Prediction: With their political leverage dependent upon petroleum revenue, 2009 will not be a good year for Putin, Chavez and Ahmadinejad.

Prediction: As the marketplace pays for the financial meltdown created by greed, corruption and incompetence, greater emphasis on transparency and accountability will be demanded by all stakeholders.

Prediction: Wall Street and the federal government created most of our current economic problems, but it will be Main Street small businesses that will lead the economy to recovery.

Final Prediction: In 2009 we will continue to live the Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”

I talked about many of these predictions, and the reasons behind them, on my small business radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show. Take a few minutes to listen and of course, I would very much like to hear your thoughts.




Warning: fsockopen() [function.fsockopen]: php_network_getaddresses: getaddrinfo failed: Temporary failure in name resolution in /var/www/wordpress/wp-includes/class-snoopy.php on line 1142

Warning: fsockopen() [function.fsockopen]: unable to connect to twitter.com:80 (Unknown error) in /var/www/wordpress/wp-includes/class-snoopy.php on line 1142