Tag Archive for '2016 presidential election'

Jim Blasingame’s 2016 Crystal Ball Predictions

Here is the 16th edition of my New Year predictions.

· Wall Street’s digital greed, Washington’s anti-business policies and collusion between the two continue to create a moribund Main Street economic environment for small businesses.

· With a declining global economy and having exhausted financial manipulation options since 2008, capital markets will struggle in 2016.

· Main Street small businesses that are mature and established will fare well in 2016.

· Economic and regulatory pressures, plus demographic trends will perpetuate an unprecedented population decline in small businesses.

· New Crowdfunding rules lowering the standards for direct investment in small businesses will not become a funding silver bullet for this sector.

· Unlike its investor equity sibling, Crowdfunding lending will proliferate across the small business sector (especially with Generation Y) at the expense of traditional banks.

· Global headwinds, the specter of terrorism, seven years of anti-business policies from the Obama administration, and the unprecedented drama of presidential politics will all contribute to a flat 2016 economy, with annual GDP stuck below 2.5%.

· The perfect storm of a slowing global economy, a crude oil glut, newly approved exports from U.S. producers and OPEC’s loss of pricing power, will keep crude averaging below $50 per barrel.

· Slow global growth and deflationary threats will prevent the Fed from making more than one rate increase in 2016, if that.

· Due to the sustained price decline in crude oil, Putin and Iran will become more desperate and dangerous, using nationalism to distract citizens from their declining economies.

·  In an unprecedented response to ISIS, moderate Muslims around the globe will denounce intolerance and violence in the name of their religion in more actively claiming their role as the 21st century stewards of Islam.

· You will hear more about blockchains and distributed-ledger technology applications, disconnected from Bitcoin. This is very complicated stuff, but it’s the future of currency and capital management, so just start learning.

·  A mere shadow of its former self, Obamacare will continue to collapse under its own structural defects, causing the President’s namesake policy to go from legacy icon to caricature.

·  Already referred to by pundits as “the lawless president,” in his last year Obama will increase his assault on the Constitution with more unprecedented, and now desperate, executive actions.

· Obama’s newest Constitutional assault will be on the 2nd Amendment. Buckle up.

· Obama’s Justice Department will not indict Hillary Clinton in 2016, but as evidence of her lying achieves critical mass it will cost HRC Millennial votes, who value honesty over political ideology.

· The GOP primary process will not produce an apparent nominee going into their convention, unless it’s Trump or Cruz.

· Republicans will not win the White House unless the ticket includes a Hispanic and at least one person from Ohio and/or Florida. Look for Trump/Rubio or Cruz/Kasich.

· The social conservatism of Republicans and the socialistic economics of Democrats will create electoral challenges for both parties in 2016.

· If Trump wins the election, it will be because he’s the only candidate most likely to avoid defending the bankrupt elements of either party.

·  A liberal member of the Supreme Court will exit in 2016, probably in the first half.

· With every member of Generation Y, aka Millennials (80+ million born 1978-1998), old enough to vote in 2016, the electoral influence by this generation is now at critical mass.

· More than just a president, the 2016 election results will reveal the future trajectory of liberty and opportunity in America.

· Alabama will become the NCAA Football Division I Champion.

Write this on a rock …My 15-year record is almost 73% accuracy. Politics may put that average in jeopardy this year.

Jim Blasingame is author of the award-winning book, The Age of the Customer: Prepare for the Moment of Relevance.

POLL RESULTS: If you watched the last GOP debate, what did you think about how CNBC moderated it?

The Question:

If you watched the last GOP debate, what did you think about how CNBC moderated it?

0% - I thought CNBC handled the debate just right.
79% - A profound demonstration of liberal media bias against Republicans.
10% - Some questions were inappropriate, but overall it was handled well.
11% - Didn’t watch.

Jim’s Comments:
Not surprised that John Harwood was so snarky toward the Republican candidates in the CNBC debate. And not surprised Becky Quick and Carl Quintanilla looked like lightweights. But was surprised CNBC didn’t rise above the slant of their mothership, NBC, and do the job they were supposed to do: moderate a debate about the economic positions of the candidates.
If eight-of-ten of our respondents saw the blatant bias, so did millions of viewers. In their attempt to diminish the stature of the Republicans, the moderators revealed the pervasive mainstream media bias and how it often manifests as small and unprofessional behavior.
And talk about irony. CNBC’s moderating performance was so bad, it actually helped the Republicans.
Thanks for playing along. Please participate in this week’s poll below.
http://survey.constantcontact.com/poll/a07ebt51vt8igo658b9/start.html

POLL RESULTS: Does Trump have a chance at becoming the Republican nominee, and possibly the President?

The Question:

Does Trump have a chance at becoming the Republican nominee, and possibly the President?

16% - Trump could be the nominee, is electable, and would be a good President.
12% - I wish Trump would be the GOP nominee, but don’t think he will.
51% - Trump is a flash in the pan and will flare out before the primary is over.

20% - President Trump? God help us!
Jim’s Comments
As you may know, I often make predictions. For more than a dozen years of doing so my record is a little better than 75% accuracy. Not because I’m so smart, but because my gray hair is not premature. I pay attention to what’s going on and imagine implications.
I predicted the Great Recession would begin in 2007, the GM bankruptcy, and before Newt Gingrich had announced, that he would be leading in the polls at the end of 2011. Alas, I also predicted that Iraq would become a sovereign state and U.S. ally, and that Romney would beat Obama. As a midyear update, this year I predicted neither Clinton nor Bush would be leading their respective polls at the end of 2015 and so far, those prognostications are looking pretty good.
But I did not see the Donald Trump candidacy coming, let alone his current appeal and momentum.
When I heard Trump deliver his announcement speech, I did predict at that time that his message, “Let’s make America great again,” would resonate well.  Based on our recent poll (see results below), more than a quarter of our respondents like him. The political pollsters show Trump in the 20+% range in the polls, but as other candidates drop out, can he pick up their supporters? More than 70% of our sample would probably no.
Trump has something in common with both of the Democrat frontrunners. He’s like the thorn in Hillary’s side, Bernie Sanders, the self-avowed socialist, because they’re both authentic. Look for authenticity to be valuable political currency in 2016. But sometimes Trump’s authenticity results in, as my father used to warn me, letting his mouth overload his backside. Right now he’s spending authenticity to buy forgiveness. But unlike his billions of real capital, Trump won’t have as much redemption capital to spend. He doesn’t have to become politically correct to be nominated, but he will have to become more politically disciplined.
Trump is like Hillary in that they both have baggage. Lots and lots of baggage. While Hillary’s baggage includes potential legal weight, Trump doesn’t seem to have that. But he has led a colorful multi-media life on his way to becoming the personification of a rich self-promoter. A successful nomination will require Trump to overcome certain inelegant segments of his life, and he’ll have to divest from his empire. No small feat either. There might be a reason Ziegfeld and Barnum never ran for president.
At this moment I don’t feel froggy enough to jump to a conclusion as to whether Trump can become the Republican nominee. But I am prepared to say that Donald Trump will have a significant impact on who the Republican nominee is. And I’ll tell you who that will be, January 1, 2016.

POLL RESULTS: Will you be interested enough to watch the GOP debate on Fox?

The Question:

Will you be interested enough to watch the GOP debate on FOX this week?

62% - Yes, I’m ready to start paying attention.
17% - No, it’s still too early to start investing my time.
0% - I never watch the GOP debates - who cares?
21% - I’m only going to listen because Trump will be there.

Jim’s Comments:

It’s good news that almost two-thirds of you are ready to engage in the presidential election process. And when you add in those who’re joining the conversation merely because one of the candidates is there - in this case, Mr. Trump - that’s good news too.
So in the past 72 hours, whether you watched the debates or not, you likely know about the fireworks that have ensued since Thursday night. Believe it or not, I wrote the new poll question and response options before the debate, then went out of town. Turns out it’s never a bad bet to wager that Donald Trump will find a way to make it into the headlines.
Thanks for playing along. Please check out the new poll and let us know what you think.




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