Tag Archive for '2013 predictions'

Recapping my 2013 Crystal Ball Predictions

Let’s review my 2013 predictions, what happened and my score

Prediction:The political class will claim “fiscal cliff” avoidance, but it’s more postponement than policy. Reality: The government was shut down again in October. Plus 1.

Prediction:The 2013 economy will be held back by two government-created headwinds: tax increases and Obamacare. Reality: Dozens of tax increases took billions out of consumers’ pockets and Obamacare is a recurring budgeting nightmare. Plus 1.

Prediction:Small business uncertainty about investing in growth will continue for the fifth consecutive year. Reality: The monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index shows continued business reluctance to hire, invest capital or borrow money for growth. Plus 1.

Prediction: The NFIB Index will continue to be at or below the unprecedented 40-year historical low of 93 points in 2013, as it was in Obama’s first term. Reality: Through November, the average Index score was 92.3. Sadly, plus 1.

Prediction: The unemployment rate will remain above 7%. Reality: While U-3 has recently fallen to almost 7%, the real unemployment condition (U6), remains in the teens. Plus 1.

Prediction: GDP in 2013 will remain moribund, below 3%. Reality: GDP through October averaged 2.3%. Plus 1.

Prediction: For the first time in history, the national debt will exceed GDP. Reality: 2013 GDP is $16.8 trillion, national debt is $17.2 trillion. Plus 1.

Prediction: The U.S. credit rating will be reduced for the second time in history during the Obama presidency. Reality: While there were warnings, the rating did not drop. Minus 1.

Prediction: State insurance exchanges, Obamacare platforms, will not be ready for the 2014 launch. Reality: The epic fail of the Obamacare launch is now the stuff of legend, including no access to exchanges for small businesses. Plus 1.

Prediction: The 2014 Obamacare “guaranteed issue” mandate will artificially cause increases in 2013 health insurance premiums. Reality: All policies increased in the past year in anticipation of mandates, like pediatric dental, even if you don’t have kids. Plus 1.

Prediction: While feckless and fecklesser – the U.S. and the U.N – watch, Iran will take the world across a nuclear Rubicon. Reality: The recent Geneva Accords not only didn’t stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but actually removed successful economic sanctions. Plus 1.

Prediction: Alabama defeats Notre Dame in the BCS Championship game in Miami. Reality: Bama 42, Irish 14. Plus 1.

That’s 11 of 12 this year, bringing my 13 year average to 72%. How’d you do?

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Jim’s 2013 crystal ball predictions

Here are my 2013 predictions. Buckle up, especially if you suffer from triskaidekaphobia.

Prediction: Whether before or after January 1, the political class will claim “fiscal cliff” avoidance, but the unleadership product will be more postponement than policy.

Prediction: The two dominant factors in the 2013 economy will both be government-created headwinds: tax increases and Obamacare.

Prediction: Small business uncertainty as a decision-making factor, now worse than during the Carter administration (according to NFIB), will continue for the fifth consecutive year and produce the following specific behaviors:

  • Continued reluctance to hire full-time employees.
  • Capital investment more for maintenance than growth.
  • Continued bank loan demand below recovery levels.

Prediction: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has been recorded below 93 points 58 times since 1973, with 34 of those in Obama’s first term. There will be more in 2013.

Prediction: Chronic unemployment and persistent under-employment (U6) will continue due to the following factors:

  • Small business’s ability to adopt technology as a productivity alternative to hiring.
  • Obamacare’s compliance floor of 50 full-time employees.

Prediction: The unemployment rate (U3) will remain above 7%.

Prediction: U.S. GDP in 2013 will remain moribund, below 3%.

Prediction: For the first time in history, the national debt will exceed GDP, putting the U.S. on a short but ignominious list that includes Greece.

Prediction: The U.S. credit rating will be reduced for the second time in history during the Obama presidency.

Prediction: State insurance exchanges, structural platforms for Obamacare, will not be ready for the 2014 launch.

Prediction: The 2014 Obamacare “guaranteed issue” mandate will artificially cause increases in 2013 health insurance premiums.

Prediction: Israel will be under more regional pressure, and able to count on less global support, than ever in its modern history.

Prediction: While feckless and fecklesser - the U.S. and the U.N - watch, Iran will take the world across a nuclear Rubicon.

Prediction: At a price too great, the Newtown tragedy will create a comprehensive national conversation on violence in our culture, not just more gun laws.

Prediction: Alabama will defeat Notre Dame in the BCS Championship game in Miami.

Alas, 2013 is shaping up to make us think of the Mel Brooks movie, “High Anxiety.” Just the title; not the comedy.

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