Tag Archive for '2012 Predictions'

Recapping Jim’s 12th annual predictions, his results and score

Here are my 2012 predictions, what happened and my score.

Prediction: U.S. GDP will improve from 1.7% in 2011 to 2%.
Actual:
The most recent Dept. of Commerce report has 2012 GDP at 2%. +1

Prediction: Small business optimism will improve.
Actual:
The NFIB Index showed optimism barely improved, but still better. +1

Prediction: Unemployment will remain above 8%.
Actual:
7.9%.  -1

Prediction: Expect reports of unfilled skilled jobs due to lack of qualified applicants.
Actual:
Multiple sources indicate up to 1.5 million unfilled skilled jobs openings. +1

Prediction: The European Central Bank will prevent a financial melt-down, but not a European recession.
Actual:
The EU recession continues and is deepening. +1

Prediction: Iraq will prove unworthy of the price paid to liberate it.
Actual:
Al Qaeda has returned to Iraq and Iranian weapons are crossing Iraq to arm Syria and Hezbollah. +1

Prediction: Iran nuclear program will continue to influence oil prices.
Actual:
Avg. 2012 crude prices, $103 PPB, from $99.85 in 2011. +1

Prediction: Obama will approve the Keystone Pipeline.
Actual:
President Obama proved he is more committed to a war on carbon fuel than lower energy costs for businesses and consumers. -1

Prediction: Occupy Wall Street participants will increasingly look more like anarchists than reformers.
Actual:
With the motto, “World Revolution,” OWS is searching for relevance, like attaching to Wal-Mart protesters. +1

Prediction: Wall Street will continue to be a leading indicator only of itself, not the economy.
Actual:
U.S. economy is barely growing, yet stock indexes are at near record highs. +1

Prediction: The Supreme Court will rule Obamacare unconstitutional.
Actual:
Chief Justice Roberts literally rewrote the law for a contrived ruling. -1

Prediction: Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee.
Actual:
+1

Prediction: Joe Biden will not be on Obama’s 2012 ticket.
Actual:
They actually did talk about it. -1

Prediction: Barack Obama will be a one-term president.
Actual:
-1

Prediction: Republicans will retain control of the U.S. House.
Actual:
+1

Prediction: Democrats will lose control of the U.S. Senate.
Actual:
-1

Prediction: Alabama will defeat LSU in the BCS Championship.
Actual:
Bama 21, LSU zip. +1

This year, 65% accuracy. Underestimated the president and his Chicago machine, and overestimated the electorate.

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Blasingame’s 12th annual predictions

Here is my 12th annual list of predictions for 2012.

Prediction: U.S. economic growth (GDP) will improve from 1.7% in 2011 to over 2%.

Prediction: Small business optimism - based on the NFIB survey - will improve from recent record lows.

Prediction: Small business growth plans, currently held back by a dam of uncertainty, will break through and set up 2013 as an expansion year. If Obama is reelected, the breakthrough will still happen, but to a lesser degree.

Prediction: Unemployment remains above 8%, due to real estate challenges, anti-business policies and rhetoric, technological advancements and structural unemployment (millions unprepared for 21st century jobs).

Prediction: “Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink,” from “Rime of the Ancient Mariner,” by Samuel Taylor Colerage. With millions unemployed, expect reports of skilled jobs going unfilled due to a lack of qualified applicants.

Prediction: The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unprecedented three-year loans to EU banks may prevent a financial melt-down, but not a prolonged European recession.

Prediction: Iraq will prove unworthy of the precious price paid for its self-determination.

Prediction: Iran will hold oil markets hostage against threats to its nuclear plans.

Prediction: Geo-politics (Iran) and election year politics (jobs and trade) will cause Congressional Democrats and President Obama to agree to the construction of the Keystone Pipeline from Canada to Texas.

Prediction: Behavior of the Occupy Wall Street participants will increasingly look more like anarchy than reform.

Prediction: Once a leading indicator of the economy, Wall Street will continue to be merely a leading indicator of itself.

Prediction: The Supreme Court will rule against the individual mandate in Obamacare, as it violates the Constitution’s Commerce Clause prohibiting the government from mandating citizens purchase a product.

Prediction: Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee.

Prediction: I’m doubling-down on my 2011 prediction that Joe Biden will not be on Obama’s 2012 ticket. Desperate people do desperate things.

Prediction: Barack Obama will be a one-term president.

Prediction: Republicans will retain majority control of the House of Representatives.

Prediction: Democrats will lose control of the U.S. Senate.

Prediction: Alabama’s defense will defeat LSU’s defense in their rematch in the BCS Championship Game.

2012 will be a defining year for America and planet Earth.

I talked more about my 2012 predictions on The Small Business Advocate Show. Click on the links below to listen or download.

Global predictions for 2012

Economic predictions for 2012

Political predictions for 2012

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