Tag Archive for '2011 predictions'

Recapping my 2011 predictions

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on 3:48 pm
in Future thinking
. 0 Comments

Here are my 2011 predictions from January 2, what happened and my score.

Prediction: Small business optimism will improve in 2011.
Actual: National polls continue to report flat or decreasing small business optimism; -1.

Prediction: Small businesses will report increased sales and profits for 2011.

Actual: The same polls indicate small businesses are reporting increases, even if only slightly; +1.

Prediction: Small business will not be a significant source of new jobs due in part to new technology options.

Actual: Polls indicate small businesses are adding technology first and employees second; +1.

Prediction: National unemployment will be above 8.5% at year-end.
Actual: Joblessness remains over 9%; +1.

Prediction: The U.S. economy will grow at over 3% GDP for 2011.
Actual: Alas, more irrational exuberance on my part. GDP growth this year will be less than 2%; -1.

Prediction: Inflation will increase in 2011.
Actual: The Consumer Price Index shows 2011 inflation at 3.5%, up from 1.5% in 2010; +1.

Prediction: The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street will increase.
Actual: Stock prices and Wall Street compensation still do not correspond to the Main Street economy; +1.

Prediction: President Obama’s like/dislike rating will improve by year-end – currently net -2.3%.
Actual: Current polls have the president at -15% (Rasmussen 43% positive - 19% negative); -1.

Prediction: Congress’ approval rating will improve - currently net -54.4% (19.6% positive, minus 74.0% negative).
Actual: Congress barely squeaked out an increase, with a net -54%; +1.

Prediction: VP Biden will not be on Obama’s second term ticket.
Actual: Jocular Joe has not been jettisoned for Hillary – yet; -1.

Prediction: Newt Gingrich will lead all GOP polls by year-end.
Actual: Newt is now leading in almost all polls – who else saw this coming?+1.

Prediction: Sarah Palin will not run for president.
Actual: Palin the endorser, not the candidate; +1.

Prediction: Obama’s greatest accomplishment, his healthcare bill, will become a political albatross.
Actual: Multiple defects in Obamacare and pending constitutional challenges are a big part of the president’s negatives; +1.

Prediction: Auburn beats Oregon for the BCS Championship.
Actual: Auburn 22, Oregon 19; +1.

That’s 10 for 14 in 2011, improving my 11-year record to 70.4%.

I talked about my 2011 prediction results today on The Small Business Advocate Show. Click here for the links to listen or download.

Check out other great SBA content HERE!

Blasingame’s 2011 crystal ball predictions

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on 12:43 pm
in Economy: National and Global and Future thinking
. 1 Comment

Here are my predictions for 2011.

Prediction: Small business optimism will improve in 2011, following recent record lows (based on 37 years of tracking by NFIB’s Dr. Bill Dunkelberg). This will result from less uncertainty about taxes, less anti-business rhetoric from Washington and an improving economy.

Prediction: For the first time since 2008, small businesses will report increased sales and profits for 2011.

Prediction: Small business recovery will not translate to significant job creation due to newly acquired aversion to adding permanent payroll expense, plus technologies that improve the conversion of capital to sales and profits.

Prediction: Stubborn structural unemployment will result in a national jobless rate above 8.5% at year-end.

Prediction: The U.S. economy will grow at a rate of over 3% GDP for 2011.

Prediction: As the global economy recovers, demand for commodities will rise, putting upward pressure on prices, especially petroleum. Budget – and/or hedge – accordingly.

Prediction: Global inflation will begin to manifest as an economic recovery headwind for markets and sovereign nations.

Prediction: The disconnection between what’s good for Wall Street and what’s good for the Main Street economy will become more evident than ever before.

Prediction: President Obama’s approval rating will improve by year-end - currently -2.3% (45.6% positive minus 47.9% negative).

Prediction: Congress’ performance approval with improve by year-end - currently -54.4% (19.6% positive, minus 74.0% negative).

Prediction: Vice President Joe Biden will announce his retirement from politics effective at the end of Obama’s first term.

Prediction: At once controversial and compelling, Newt Gingrich’s presidential candidacy will lead all Republican polls by year-end.

Prediction: A better power-broker than viable candidate, Sarah Palin will not run for president.

Prediction: As sunlight is shined on the financial and regulatory realities of “Obama-Care,” it will transmogrify from President Obama’s greatest policy accomplishment to a political albatross.

Prediction: Auburn will embarrass Oregon in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game on January 10.

We continue to live the Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”

Jim Blasingame makes three predictions for 2011

Jim’s economic predictions for 2011

Jim’s 2011 political predictions


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