Here are my 2010 predictions from last January 3rd, followed by what happened and my score.
Prediction: U.S. GDP will be between 2% - 3%.
Actual: Year-to-date GDP is 2.23%. Plus 1.
Prediction: This recovery will not be good for start-ups.
Actual: July 2010 Business Week headline: “Start-up activity at record low.” Plus 1.
Prediction: Growing small business loan demand will signal Main Street recovery.
Actual: The NFIB Small Business Survey reported weak loan demand throughout 2010. Minus 1.
Prediction: 2010 will not see large banks returning to small business lending.
Actual: Weak demand and their own financial problems caused this to come to pass. Plus 1.
Prediction: The housing industry will continue to challenge the recovery.
Actual: Foreclosures are up national median home price is down. Plus 1.
Prediction: The second jobless recovery in a decade will keep unemployment above 9%.
Actual: Through November 2010, U.S. unemployment was 9.8%. Plus 1.
Prediction: A new aversion to debt will stunt economic growth.
Actual: De-leveraging – a global phenomenon for individuals, companies and sovereign nations – has become one of the iconic residuals of the Great Recession. Plus 1.
Prediction: U.S. stock markets will not advance on merely cost cutting and without market performance.
Actual: Wall Street gains have defied my logic, but sadly, these gains are being paid for by millions of unemployed Americans. Minus 1.
Prediction: Health care “reform” legislation will be signed into law along party lines.
Actual: On March 23, President Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act without one Republican vote. Plus 1.
Prediction: Election-year realities will cause Democrats to forsake pro-union and cap-and-trade legislation.
Actual: Neither issue was a serious legislative threat in 2010. Plus 1.
Prediction: Republicans will increase seats in both houses without gaining control of either but will win a filibuster minority in the Senate.
Actual: Got three out of four, thanks to the Tea Party. We’ll call this a push.
Prediction: The federal government will keep California out of bankruptcy. New York will follow.
Actual: Like the 2009 General Motors bankruptcy I predicted in 2006, this cake just has to bake a little longer. Minus 1.
Final 2010 score: 8 right, 3 wrong, one push, putting my 10-year accuracy at 70.2%. How did you do?
Recently, I discussed my 2010 predictions and results on my radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show. Please take a few minutes to listen, and, as always, leave your comments.