SBA Poll: The likelihood of another recession

The Question:
The economy experienced negative growth in the 4th quarter. A recession is two negative quarters in a row. From your perspective, what is the likelihood of another recession?

4% - Zero - It was just one bad quarter and won’t be repeated

30% - 50% - This economy could go either way

39% - 75% - This economy is very fragile

26% - 100% - We may already be in a recession

My Comments:
Recently, we learned that GDP went negative in the fourth quarter of last year. There are many factors contributing to this drop in economic performance: decreasing defense spending, a drop in inventories and exports, Hurricane Sandy, and an election.

That last point is arguably the thing that influenced almost every American the most. We had what I believe to have been the most emotional national election in my life, that didn’t go the way at least half of us wanted, and we knew that almost two months before the end of the quarter.

A negative growth quarter in the U.S. is serious, since the definition of a recession is two consecutive negative quarters. So, when 96% of the sector that’s made up of the most pathologically optimistic of all humans - small business owners - say we have from a 50% to 100% chance of another recession, that’s not good news.

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