It’s time to review my 2009 predictions from a year ago and tally my accuracy.
Prediction: In 2009, Main Street and small businesses, not Wall Street, will suffer the most. Reality: Unemployment 10.2%, Dow Jones up 55%, +1.
Prediction: The recovery will begin in the second half of ’09. Reality: Technically, the recession ended Q2, +1.
Prediction: The credit crisis will hurt business start-up opportunities. Reality: Record low new businesses, +1.
Prediction: Retailers and big-ticket sellers will suffer the most in 2009. Reality: This one was easy, +1.
Prediction: The Obama administration will produce a successful small business economic relief plan. Reality: Shouldn’t have said “successful,” -1.
Prediction: Community banks will thrive in 2009. Reality: Except in states hit hard by real estate speculation, community banks have been the bright spots in the economy, +1.
Prediction: Unprecedented government intervention will not bear economic fruit until the second half. Reality: “Cash for clunkers” in Q3, +1.
Prediction: The Obama administration will not push the pro-union Employee Free Choice Act in 2009. Reality: Bingo! Expect it in 2010, +1.
Prediction: Congress will not pass a “cap-and-trade” bill in 2009. Reality: House 1/Senate 0, +1.
Prediction: The Obama administration will not recommend any tax increases. Reality: No new taxes, but many “recommended,” -1.
Prediction: The Obama administration will push hard for healthcare reform in 2009. Reality: Economy and health care reform have been 1a and 1b, +1.
Prediction: Al Franken, will be the next Senator from Minnesota. Reality: Franken was sworn in July 8, 2009, +1.
Prediction: The Fed will begin nudging interest rates up in Q4. Reality: Didn’t happen, -1.
Prediction: Oil prices will average below $65 per barrel. Reality: 2009 average was $59.04, +1.
Prediction: The electorate will rise up against the federal government over poor leadership and anti-growth policies. Reality: Tea Parties, +1.
Prediction: Wall Street and Washington created most of our economic problems, but Main Street small businesses will lead the recovery. Reality: Any questions? +1.
After a bad ’08 (7 for 15), I went 13 for 16 in ’09, putting my 9-year average at 70%. How’d you do?
