Archive for the 'Economy: National and Global' Category

Small Business Advocate Poll: To Keystone or not to Keystone?

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on February 2, 2012
in Economy: National and Global, Presidential policies and Regulations
. 0 Comments

The Question:
Construction of the Keystone Pipeline to bring Canadian crude oil to U.S. refineries is being debated in Washington. What do you think?

87% - Yes, it will create jobs and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil

9% - No, it could be an environmental nightmare

4% - Uncertain

Jim’s Comments:
Let’s get one thing out of the way first: The United States of America, which consumes more carbon fuel per capita than any other nation on the planet, has NO national energy plan. Not now, not ever, nor is one even being considered.

So, when the Keystone Pipeline - which would bisect the U.S. by carrying Canadian crude oil to Houston, Texas - was proposed, it’s not like it either fit into or violated some kind of a grand plan. But it does push the buttons of a lot of people and create a few strange bedfellows.

  • Environmentalists hate it because: 1) it might break and contaminate the environment; and 2) they don’t like anything that promotes the use of more carbon fuel.
  • Unions like it because: 1) it creates thousands of jobs they hope will be union jobs; and 2) they desperately need more union dues from those jobs.
  • The Obama administration hates it because: 1) they only like green jobs and crude is either black or brown, but never green; and 2) they made the calculation that they can get more votes by ticking off the unions than the environmentalists.
  • The petroleum industry likes it because: 1) they like anything that puts the word “more” in front of “oil”; and 2) it ticks off the environmentalists.
  • The marketplace likes it because: 1) it will create thousands of jobs; and 2) and we desperately need more new jobs.
  • Most members of Congress like it because: 1) it creates jobs and, unlike the Obama administration, they don’t care what color jobs; and 2) they can take credit for creating jobs.

So, that leaves only one U.S. group to poll: small businesses. And when we asked our small business audiences what they thought about the Keystone Pipeline, here’s what we learned.

Almost nine of ten - 87% - said “Yes, the Keystone pipeline will create jobs and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.” Apparently, we don’t think Canadian oil is “foreign.” Less than 10% said, “No, it could be an environmental nightmare,” and the rest were “Uncertain.”

Consequently, if you just do the math, clearly more groups want the Keystone Pipeline than don’t. And since I believe that small business votes should get double weight, the pipeline should be a slam dunk.

But since Barack Obama has that Oval Office thing going for him, which he used last week to reject the pipeline, it looks like the Keystone Pipeline is in trouble. Stay tuned.

Yesterday on my radio program I talked more about why we need the Keystone Pipeline. Take a few minutes to listen or download and leave your thoughts.

Check out more great SBA content HERE!

Take this week’s poll HERE!

Small Business Advocate Poll: How are you feeling about your business in 2012?

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on January 18, 2012
in Economy: National and Global and Future thinking
. 0 Comments

The Question:
How are you feeling about your business in 2012?

23% - Excited - it already looks like a good year.

50% - Positive - it’s looking better than last year.

27% - Uncertain - we’re still just hanging on.

Jim’s Comments:
For almost two years, we’ve been polling our audiences (radio/Internet/Newsletter) on how you feel about business prospects. Our last poll is probably the seventh time on this topic. In my career I’ve never seen so much consistence in attitude about the economy over such a long period of time. Last week we asked this question: “How are you feeling about your business in 2012?” Here’s what we learned.

A little less than one-fourth of our respondents said they were, “Excited - it already looks like a good year,” and a little more than one-fourth said they were, “Uncertain - we’re still just hanging on.” The group in the middle, who said they were, “Positive - it’s looking better than last year,” made up half of our sample.

As I indicated in my 2012 predictions, there isn’t going to be any attitude changes on Main Street until after we know who the next president is going to be.

Take this week’s poll HERE!

Check out more great SBA content HERE!

Blasingame’s 12th annual predictions

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on January 3, 2012
in Economy: National and Global, Future thinking and Politics
. 0 Comments

Here is my 12th annual list of predictions for 2012.

Prediction: U.S. economic growth (GDP) will improve from 1.7% in 2011 to over 2%.

Prediction: Small business optimism - based on the NFIB survey - will improve from recent record lows.

Prediction: Small business growth plans, currently held back by a dam of uncertainty, will break through and set up 2013 as an expansion year. If Obama is reelected, the breakthrough will still happen, but to a lesser degree.

Prediction: Unemployment remains above 8%, due to real estate challenges, anti-business policies and rhetoric, technological advancements and structural unemployment (millions unprepared for 21st century jobs).

Prediction: “Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink,” from “Rime of the Ancient Mariner,” by Samuel Taylor Colerage. With millions unemployed, expect reports of skilled jobs going unfilled due to a lack of qualified applicants.

Prediction: The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unprecedented three-year loans to EU banks may prevent a financial melt-down, but not a prolonged European recession.

Prediction: Iraq will prove unworthy of the precious price paid for its self-determination.

Prediction: Iran will hold oil markets hostage against threats to its nuclear plans.

Prediction: Geo-politics (Iran) and election year politics (jobs and trade) will cause Congressional Democrats and President Obama to agree to the construction of the Keystone Pipeline from Canada to Texas.

Prediction: Behavior of the Occupy Wall Street participants will increasingly look more like anarchy than reform.

Prediction: Once a leading indicator of the economy, Wall Street will continue to be merely a leading indicator of itself.

Prediction: The Supreme Court will rule against the individual mandate in Obamacare, as it violates the Constitution’s Commerce Clause prohibiting the government from mandating citizens purchase a product.

Prediction: Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee.

Prediction: I’m doubling-down on my 2011 prediction that Joe Biden will not be on Obama’s 2012 ticket. Desperate people do desperate things.

Prediction: Barack Obama will be a one-term president.

Prediction: Republicans will retain majority control of the House of Representatives.

Prediction: Democrats will lose control of the U.S. Senate.

Prediction: Alabama’s defense will defeat LSU’s defense in their rematch in the BCS Championship Game.

2012 will be a defining year for America and planet Earth.

I talked more about my 2012 predictions on The Small Business Advocate Show. Click on the links below to listen or download.

Global predictions for 2012

Economic predictions for 2012

Political predictions for 2012

Check out more great SBA content HERE!

Small Business Advocate Poll: What’s your 2012 outlook?

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on December 16, 2011
in Economy: National and Global and Future thinking
. 0 Comments

The Question:

Are you seeing indications that 2012 will be a better year for business - sales, profit, etc. - than 2011?

52% - Yes

29% - No

19% - Uncertain

My Comments:

Almost 20% said they were still uncertain about next year. And almost one-third said they were certain things were not going to be better next year. But a little over half, 52%, said they were seeing positive growth indicators for next year.

Now, 52% isn’t exactly a rousing expectation of runaway economic expansion, but based on other questions we’ve asked in the past two years along these lines, it does represent a shift in optimism.

And my own experience tracks with the majority here. It does seem that, in the face of plenty of scary things, 2012 could be better than 2011. I’ll have more to say about this soon.

Check out my recent audio commentary on small business growth plans for 2012. Listen or download.

Take this week’s poll HERE!

For more great SBA content, click HERE!

Small Business Advocate Poll: Suspend business growth plans until after 2012 election?

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on December 8, 2011
in Economy: National and Global, Future thinking and Politics
. 0 Comments

The Question: How likely are you to suspend business growth plans until after the 2012 election?

45% - Very likely
45% - Not likely
10% - Uncertain

My Commentary:

The U.S. economy will end the year with a GDP growth number of less than 2%. For the past decade, that would be a stellar year for Europe, but for the largest economy on the planet, that’s about half of what we’re capable of.

One of the most plausible reasons given for why the U.S. economy is still languishing is uncertainty. Businesses, especially small businesses, are uncertain about many things: debates about whether to raise taxes; the impact of the new health care law; banking industry issues; growing federal budget deficits and the national debt, just to name a few. Consequently, the logic follows, businesses are playing their risk cards close to the vest.

One of the most common predictions is that the next event that will will cause the pent-up growth pressure to break the dam of uncertainty will be changes in Washington as a result of the next election in November 2012. So we wanted to know how the members of our small business audience would respond to this question: “How likely are you to suspend business growth plans until after the 2012 election?” Frankly, the results were a little surprising.

Those who were “very likely” to postpone growth plans until after the election came in at 45% of our sample. And those who were “not likely” to suspend growth plans came in at the exact same number - 45%. 10% were “uncertain.”

Even though our unscientific online poll didn’t produce the numbers that conventional wisdom would seem to indicate, it is still significant that essentially half of our respondents were putting their growth plans on hold for another year. Plus it corresponds with my earlier point about the economy doing about half as well as it should be.

Check out my recent audio commentary on small business growth plans for 2012. Listen or download.

For more great SBA content, click HERE!

To take this week’s poll, click HERE!

Small Business Advocate Poll: Corruption and Collusion between Wall Street and Washington

Published
by
Jim Blasingame
on December 1, 2011
in Economy: National and Global and Politics
. 0 Comments

The Question: What, if any, do you think is the level of corruption and collusion between Wall Street and Washington, D.C.?

72% - Extreme
24% - Somewhat
4% - None

My Commentary:

We wanted to know what our online, radio and ezine audiences thought about this issue, so recently, we asked this question: “What, if any, do you think is the level of corruption and collusion between Wall Street and Washington, D.C.?” Here’s what we learned:

Only four percent of our sample said there was no hanky-panky between Washington and Wall Street, while about one-fourth said it was “somewhat” likely. But 72% of you said that the level of corruption and collusion between our elected representatives and the financial elites was “extreme.”

For more great SBA cotent, click HERE!

To take this week’s poll, click HERE!