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Daily Archive for December 4th, 2012

Recapping Jim’s 12th annual predictions, his results and score

Here are my 2012 predictions, what happened and my score.

Prediction: U.S. GDP will improve from 1.7% in 2011 to 2%.
Actual:
The most recent Dept. of Commerce report has 2012 GDP at 2%. +1

Prediction: Small business optimism will improve.
Actual:
The NFIB Index showed optimism barely improved, but still better. +1

Prediction: Unemployment will remain above 8%.
Actual:
7.9%.  -1

Prediction: Expect reports of unfilled skilled jobs due to lack of qualified applicants.
Actual:
Multiple sources indicate up to 1.5 million unfilled skilled jobs openings. +1

Prediction: The European Central Bank will prevent a financial melt-down, but not a European recession.
Actual:
The EU recession continues and is deepening. +1

Prediction: Iraq will prove unworthy of the price paid to liberate it.
Actual:
Al Qaeda has returned to Iraq and Iranian weapons are crossing Iraq to arm Syria and Hezbollah. +1

Prediction: Iran nuclear program will continue to influence oil prices.
Actual:
Avg. 2012 crude prices, $103 PPB, from $99.85 in 2011. +1

Prediction: Obama will approve the Keystone Pipeline.
Actual:
President Obama proved he is more committed to a war on carbon fuel than lower energy costs for businesses and consumers. -1

Prediction: Occupy Wall Street participants will increasingly look more like anarchists than reformers.
Actual:
With the motto, “World Revolution,” OWS is searching for relevance, like attaching to Wal-Mart protesters. +1

Prediction: Wall Street will continue to be a leading indicator only of itself, not the economy.
Actual:
U.S. economy is barely growing, yet stock indexes are at near record highs. +1

Prediction: The Supreme Court will rule Obamacare unconstitutional.
Actual:
Chief Justice Roberts literally rewrote the law for a contrived ruling. -1

Prediction: Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee.
Actual:
+1

Prediction: Joe Biden will not be on Obama’s 2012 ticket.
Actual:
They actually did talk about it. -1

Prediction: Barack Obama will be a one-term president.
Actual:
-1

Prediction: Republicans will retain control of the U.S. House.
Actual:
+1

Prediction: Democrats will lose control of the U.S. Senate.
Actual:
-1

Prediction: Alabama will defeat LSU in the BCS Championship.
Actual:
Bama 21, LSU zip. +1

This year, 65% accuracy. Underestimated the president and his Chicago machine, and overestimated the electorate.

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