How much will the condition of the economy influence your vote for president in November?
15% - The condition of the economy will influence my vote for president.
12% - Regardless of how the economy is doing, I will vote for Obama.
73% - Regardless of how the economy is doing, I will vote for the Republican ticket.
During the 1992 presidential election, between incumbent George H. W. Bush and the challenger, Bill Clinton, a tiny little recession had occurred that was just big enough to be a factor in that contest.
One of Clinton’s advisors, James Carville, coined a phrase that arguably helped his candidate win that year, “It’s the economy, stupid.” And 20 years and five presidential election cycles later, the term endures as the maxim to introduce economic issues into any political debate.
Even though America is still dealing with vestiges of the The Great Recession, the U.S. economy does seem to be exhibiting recovery signs. Still, enough economic challenges remain in what I’ve termed the “Not-so-great Recovery,” for Republicans to be able to turn the tables on Democrats and co-opt “It’s the economy, stupid,” as their 2012 campaign slogan.
We wanted to see how much the economy was going to factor into the 2012 presidential election, so we asked our audience this question: “How much will the condition of the economy influence your vote for president in November?” Here’s what you said:
Those who said they have already made up their minds and will vote for one side or the other, regardless of the condition of the economy came in at 12% for Obama and 73% for whoever is running on the Republican side. While only 15% of the respondents to our unscientific online poll said, “The condition of the economy will influence my vote for president.”
The good news for President Obama is the economy does seem to be improving and may well be less of a complaint against him. The bad news for the President, at least if our audience is any kind of an indicator, is that many voters have already made up their minds, as if to say “Anyone else, stupid.”
In the past few days I’ve talked with two experts on my radio show about how much they think unemployment and the economy will impact the election in November:
Former Chief Economist of National City Bank, Richard DeKaser is President of Woodley Park Research, where he oversees macroeconomic forecasting, real time economic analysis, and housing valuation research.
Bill Brandt is President and Chief Executive Officer of Development Specialists, Inc., a firm specializing in the provision of management, consulting and turnaround assistance to troubled or reorganizing concerns.
Click on the links below and listen to what these smart men have to say. You may be surprised!
How much will employment impact the 2012 election? with Richard DeKaser
Will the economy be a major issue in the 2012 election? with Bill Brandt