Monthly Archive for January, 2011

Blasingame’s 2011 crystal ball predictions

Here are my predictions for 2011.

Prediction: Small business optimism will improve in 2011, following recent record lows (based on 37 years of tracking by NFIB’s Dr. Bill Dunkelberg). This will result from less uncertainty about taxes, less anti-business rhetoric from Washington and an improving economy.

Prediction: For the first time since 2008, small businesses will report increased sales and profits for 2011.

Prediction: Small business recovery will not translate to significant job creation due to newly acquired aversion to adding permanent payroll expense, plus technologies that improve the conversion of capital to sales and profits.

Prediction: Stubborn structural unemployment will result in a national jobless rate above 8.5% at year-end.

Prediction: The U.S. economy will grow at a rate of over 3% GDP for 2011.

Prediction: As the global economy recovers, demand for commodities will rise, putting upward pressure on prices, especially petroleum. Budget – and/or hedge – accordingly.

Prediction: Global inflation will begin to manifest as an economic recovery headwind for markets and sovereign nations.

Prediction: The disconnection between what’s good for Wall Street and what’s good for the Main Street economy will become more evident than ever before.

Prediction: President Obama’s approval rating will improve by year-end - currently -2.3% (45.6% positive minus 47.9% negative).

Prediction: Congress’ performance approval with improve by year-end - currently -54.4% (19.6% positive, minus 74.0% negative).

Prediction: Vice President Joe Biden will announce his retirement from politics effective at the end of Obama’s first term.

Prediction: At once controversial and compelling, Newt Gingrich’s presidential candidacy will lead all Republican polls by year-end.

Prediction: A better power-broker than viable candidate, Sarah Palin will not run for president.

Prediction: As sunlight is shined on the financial and regulatory realities of “Obama-Care,” it will transmogrify from President Obama’s greatest policy accomplishment to a political albatross.

Prediction: Auburn will embarrass Oregon in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game on January 10.

We continue to live the Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”

Jim Blasingame makes three predictions for 2011

Jim’s economic predictions for 2011

Jim’s 2011 political predictions

Blasingame’s 2010 prediction results

Here are my 2010 predictions from last January 3rd, followed by what happened and my score.

Prediction: U.S. GDP will be between 2% - 3%.
Actual: Year-to-date GDP is 2.23%. Plus 1.

Prediction: This recovery will not be good for start-ups.
Actual: July 2010 Business Week headline: “Start-up activity at record low.” Plus 1.

Prediction: Growing small business loan demand will signal Main Street recovery.
Actual: The NFIB Small Business Survey reported weak loan demand throughout 2010. Minus 1.

Prediction: 2010 will not see large banks returning to small business lending.
Actual:  Weak demand and their own financial problems caused this to come to pass. Plus 1.

Prediction: The housing industry will continue to challenge the recovery.
Actual:  Foreclosures are up national median home price is down. Plus 1.

Prediction: The second jobless recovery in a decade will keep unemployment above 9%. 
Actual: Through November 2010, U.S. unemployment was 9.8%. Plus 1.

Prediction: A new aversion to debt will stunt economic growth.
Actual: De-leveraging – a global phenomenon for individuals, companies and sovereign nations – has become one of the iconic residuals of the Great Recession. Plus 1.

Prediction: U.S. stock markets will not advance on merely cost cutting and without market performance.
Actual: Wall Street gains have defied my logic, but sadly, these gains are being paid for by millions of unemployed Americans. Minus 1.

Prediction: Health care “reform” legislation will be signed into law along party lines.
Actual: On March 23, President Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act without one Republican vote. Plus 1.

Prediction: Election-year realities will cause Democrats to forsake pro-union and cap-and-trade legislation.
Actual: Neither issue was a serious legislative threat in 2010. Plus 1.

Prediction: Republicans will increase seats in both houses without gaining control of either but will win a filibuster minority in the Senate.
Actual: Got three out of four, thanks to the Tea Party. We’ll call this a push.

Prediction: The federal government will keep California out of bankruptcy. New York will follow.
Actual: Like the 2009 General Motors bankruptcy I predicted in 2006, this cake just has to bake a little longer. Minus 1.

Final 2010 score: 8 right, 3 wrong, one push, putting my 10-year accuracy at 70.2%. How did you do?

Recently, I discussed my 2010 predictions and results on my radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show. Please take a few minutes to listen, and, as always, leave your comments.

Recapping Jim’s 2010 predictions for start-ups and GDP

Recapping Jim’s 2010 predictions: unemployment, lending, etc.

Jim recaps his 2010 predictions on politics and Wall Street

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