For several years I’ve been making predictions about the coming year. I have published my predictions in my own electronic publication, The Small Business Advocate NEWSLETTER, in my newspaper syndication, and talked about them on my radio show.
My predictions typically include small business issues, economic trends, political and public policy, and also international developments. My goal is to help my audience think outside the four walls of the business, give them an opportunity to challenge me, see how good of a prognosticator I am, and of course, have a little fun.
Many people make and publish predictions, but how many return at the end of the year and settle up on how accurate they were? At the end of every year I have reconciled my predictions with what really happened and, until 2008, actually had a 72% accuracy rating.
So it’s reconciling time for my 2008 predictions and it’s going to be ugly. My record this year is 7 for 15, which, if I were playing baseball, would be a .466 batting average – enough to get in the Hall of Fame. But 2008 was not up to my past standards.
Believe it or not, I predicted the beginning of the recession (Q4, ‘07) nine months before economists determined that to be the case. But no - I couldn’t stop there – I had to predict when the recession would end, which I missed, horribly.
I predicted that Gov. Bill Richardson would be on the Democrat’s national ticket, as its V.P candidate. We now know that Richardson will have a very important cabinet position in the new administration, as Secretary of Commerce. So I was close, but we’re not playing horseshoes.
Before Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia I predicted Putin would be a problem in 2008. But I also predicted the economy would absorb the credit crisis by the middle of the year.
If you would like to see my entire list of predictions and my results, I’ll offer them two ways: You can read them here, or you can listen as I discuss them on my small business radio program, The Small Business Advocate Show.
By the way, next week I’ll reveal my predictions for 2009.